analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days

Posted by: WesleyH

analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/29/16 09:23 PM

Regarding the thread on the death of a hiker on the Appalachian trail in Maine, a bit of new information has come to light. A quick analysis shows a few facts.

"On the initial missing persons report that was filed, [Mrs] Largay’s husband itemized a number of items that he knew she’d been wearing or carrying. Under the category labeled “GPS, PLB, Compass” — the acronyms referring to Global Positioning System, Personal Locator Beacon– the responding warden wrote: “SPOT. Left at motel.” SPOT is a company that makes, among other things, satellite-based devices that allow hikers in remote areas to communicate their whereabouts to others without the benefit of a cellular signal."

AND

[H]er skeletal remains were found on a high piece of ground about 3,000 feet from the trail, where she apparently set up camp after becoming lost."


Source: http://outthere.bangordailynews.com/2016...y-of-questions/


Another source yielded this tidbit.

"Mrs Lee told me that Geraldine had a lighter and waterproof matches. She stated that she did not know how to use a compass, She didn't even know if Geraldine had a compass.
Mrs Lee reiterated her statement regarding Geraldines lack of confidence and her inability to cope with the obvious rigors of the trail"

AND

"She was relying on her blue Samsung slide cellphone to keep in touch with her husband, who met her every few days with supplies. After she became lost, she tried texting her husband, but because there was no cell service, he never got the message."

AND

"Her doctor would tell investigators that once she ran out of the medication she took for anxiety, she could suffer panic attacks."

. . .

"Shane Vorous, who operates the Stratton Motel with his wife, Stacey, said Thursday that they try to tell hikers where they are likely to get cellphone service and where known dead zones are along the Appalachian Trail."

. . .

"Everyone relies on their cellphone so much,” Critendon said. With a lot of hikers, that is a problem, because there are so many ups and downs in that area, and it is so remote. I think of lot of hikers don’t realize it.”

. . .

"Lee, Largay’s friend who had hiked the trail with her until they reached Maine, told investigators that on several occasions Largay had become lost or had fallen behind, and Lee had to backtrack to find her. It wasn’t clear if Largay was taking prescribed anti-anxiety medication at the time."

Source: http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/05/26/m...-use-a-compass/

The article goes on to state a compass WAS found with her.

The additional excerpts (below) give the position of her body as N44 59.011 W70 24.099. Pulling it up on google, she was about about 2300 feet from a road (SW) and about 1750 feet from the trail to the SE.

Apparently, the Maine Warden service recently released some 1500 pages of files about the event.

It looks like a couple of grievous error were made. .

1. Failure to know how to use map and compass, the most basic skills ensured she would get lost after leaving the trail.

2. Her apparent reliance on cell phone to maintain contact. Especially given the known dead spots in the area. A little research on the hikers part could have prevented this.

3. Continuing alone on the trail after her companion quit.
Given her Anxiety issues, her having fallen behind before and her inability to use map and compass seem to be significant.

4. Failure to take the SPOT device with her. Almost goes without saying that such a device could have brought about her quick rescue.


I seriously have to wonder, How long did she wander around AFTER she realized she was lost? I doubt she traveled that far off the trail to relieve herself. Judging from her distance from the trail, she continued for some time AFTER realizing she was lost. Was her anxiety a contributing factor? Most likely, as it was a known problem for her.

This is a truly sad case and a death that did not need to happen. But it highlights the importance of the basics. Although she most likely did the right thing by staying put when she was lost, had she done so much sooner, it is likely that search teams with dogs would have located her quickly.


Additional excerpts may be found here:
http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/05/25/r...woods/document/


Last words. . I realize that I am a new poster here at the esteemed forums for equipped.org. However, in analyzing failures, we all learn. . I am curious to know what other members get out of the same information, and come to a differing conclusion.

Share your thoughts
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/29/16 10:48 PM

This recalls a similar situation where a young high schooler became disoriented while gathering firewood for a picnic. Her instinct led her to travel downhill from the picnic spot high in the Santa Catalina Mts near Tucson, AZ. After tracking her down the canyon, my partner and I located her just after sunrise, and just before a gigantic waterfall would have given her problems. At this point, we were at least two miles from her picnic table.
Posted by: gonewiththewind

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 01:53 AM

There is already a thread about this event.

However:

She exceeded her capabilities, she should not have been out there alone (and her friends should not have allowed her to be alone knowing her limitations)

She did not stay oriented to the trail when she left it. You need to take bearings, look for landmarks, leave a mark to guide you back, know the terrain around you, something that will tell you which direction the trail was.

She moved too far from the trail when she realized she was lost (conjecture), and anxiety would play a role in that. Many people do the same thing when disoriented, going too far in the wrong direction either before they realize they are going in the wrong direction or after.

She did not signal properly enough to be found by teams that did search in that area.

She evidently did not posses sufficient wilderness survival skills ( fire, signaling, navigation, experience, planning, judgement, reliable friends)

As stated in the other thread, this is not to insult the lady, just analysis of the facts. She was out of her depth, her friends did not help take care of her.
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 02:13 AM

This thread should be merged with the previous one.

We often find ourselves referring to archived stories and comments years later. It's best if they are in one thread.

FWIW I believe that a respectful but clear-headed analysis of a tragic event is both appropriate and useful. The goal is never to blame or ridicule, but to learn from hard experience.
Posted by: Russ

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 02:38 AM

Agree. If any here have read an aircraft incident report, the primary intent is to determine what/who failed (aircraft or pilots) and why so that future incidents can maybe be avoided. The incidents I've read have been brutally honest; they aren't intended to make people (survivors/relatives) feel good, they're intended to save lives. Why learn by your own mistakes when you can learn from the mistakes of those who have already beaten that path. Maybe we should model our comments to be more like what the NTSB would write. But for that you need hard facts and very little unsupported supposition.
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 03:09 AM

Originally Posted By: Russ
But for that you need hard facts and very little unsupported supposition.


As you suggest, that is a luxury we almost never have; hence the importance of being circumspect in what we post.

There is a dangerous temptation to post, from the comfort of my armchair, words suggesting that other people are less wise and capable than myself. I find that a little time "out in the weeds" cures me of this tendency with rapid, ruthless, and humbling efficiency. "There, but for the grace of God, go I."
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 12:37 PM

Telling other adults what to do can be tricky business. This poor hiker's husband and hiking partner have taken a little flack for letting her hike alone and unprepared, but let's face facts - what were they to do to stop her?

We've said many times here at ETS, that survival situations like this are usually the result of a series of small missteps. Simply stated, this hiker, didn't see hers. Most don't what from I've read. I'm planning to hike the Pacific Crest Trail in about 2 years time. This story really made me sit up and pay attention. Instead of passing judgement or blame, I ask myself what I can learn from this. "What can I do to mitigate my risks on my own big hike?"

I'm pretty confident in my outdoors skills, but I will be spending some serious time honing my skills - especially my navigation skills - over the next couple of years. Map & compass, and GPS. We will be taking more than one method to keep us oriented to the trail, and also multiple ways to signal for help. Purposeful campfires in the PNW are notoriously difficulty for us non-locals to master, so some extra back-up will be taken for this purpose, just in case we need a signal fire.

More locally, as a parent and Scout leader, it's important to teach my kiddos to keep safe when they are out adventuring. I teach them basic first aid, how to light fires & build shelters, how make water drinkable, etc.... but what to do to stay found, and what to do if they find themselves lost or hurt, are my top priorities.

I am no expert, but I put a lot of faith in the "Hug a Tree" strategy. There's some excellent information about kid's survival here on ETS, and I believe that it's great advice for adults too. (Sidebar: I have a friend who is alive today, because she wasn't too proud to wear a Hello Kitty bike helmet when it was the only one that fit her.) It might have saved this poor woman's life: http://www.equipped.org/kidsrvl.htm

Here's a little video I made about teaching my three year old to hug a tree. She has a lot to learn, but it's never to young to teach them to think about safety first!

Backpackgirl Learning to Hug a Tree

Stay safe out there, my friends!
Posted by: wildman800

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 01:50 PM

Greetings BacPacJac!! One thing we (Louisiana) do have in common with the Northwest, it is wet most of the time. I carry a few Trioxane (USGI Surplus) tablets to get the initial small stuff burning good as I add the larger stuff on top.
Posted by: haertig

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 04:52 PM

I need to practice my fire starting skills in damp environments. I haven't done enough of that, especially lately. I'm used to low humidity Colorado, where we have to be more concerned about accidentally starting fires. Other than in a pouring rainstorm, I'll bet fire starting in Colorado is pretty easy compared to other parts of the country.
Posted by: LED

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/30/16 11:47 PM

Originally Posted By: wildman800
Greetings BacPacJac!! One thing we (Louisiana) do have in common with the Northwest, it is wet most of the time. I carry a few Trioxane (USGI Surplus) tablets to get the initial small stuff burning good as I add the larger stuff on top.


I often use those myself as an easy way to ignite compressed saw dust bricks (eco bricks). Works great for damp wood too.

And I was just thinking. Does anyone carry lights with strobe or SOS modes? Similar to a marine distress strobe beacon? They're not that heavy but I'm wondering it would be worth the extra weight in the backcountry.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 12:29 AM

I have a Nitecore P12 that does indeed have the SOS and beacon modes and they are actually fairly easy to access as well as two Zebralight headlamps that also have that feature; on them it is somewhat more tricky to activate. I can't say that I bought either of them for that feature specifically. I like them because they have variable light levels, long run times, and seem to be quite sturdy and dependable.

My Zebralight 502 headlamp would probably be my choice for a lamp to carry where weight was really critical. Signalling at night, if the option is available, I would probably prefer a signal fire, which would tend to conserve my batteries. I would also consider carrying my Zebralight that runs on an 18650 battery - the slight additional weight is repaid in significantly longer run time, especially at lower light levels.

The SOS/beacon feature is fairly low on my list of significant criteria in evaluating and purchasing a light.
Posted by: haertig

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 02:49 AM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I have a Nitecore P12...

Excellent choice! I just bought one of those for my daughter, with some 18650's (3400mAh) and charger. She just took a park ranger job that includes some light law enforcement duties (writing parking tickets and stuff like that). I wanted her to have a good flashlight with the ability to remember strobe mode, for instant access. She wanted something light weight and small for belt carry, and after research, the P12 is what I chose.

After a week on that job, she realized that she didn't like law enforcement - too many drunks, mean, aggressive people, folks were NOT happy to see her, etc. And since she was more of an auxiliary-type ranger she was not armed, making some encounters a little scary, having to radio for armed backup and hoping they'd get there in time. Luckily they were able to transfer her to a more standard "park ranger" type position, where she's explaining the flora and fauna and leading people on tours in those areas (that was what they initially told her the job would be, before dropping the law enforcement bomb on her). So it all worked out in the end.

She now wants to trade that P12 with me for my smaller inside pocket light - an Olight T15 with 14500's. I don't use that Olight much, not for years now, so it's a good trade for me (well, considering I paid for both lights, it's not much of a "trade"!)

Anyway, back to the conversation at hand - I think the P12 would make an excellent distress light for hiking. The flashing modes would have quite a bit of reach after dark, and the light would be very useful for other activities as well. You can use the lower power modes and it lasts a very long time. The Fenix PD35 is a similar light (but lacks the remember-strobe capability that I was initially after - most people probably don't want/need that however).
Posted by: Russ

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 03:42 AM

I purchased the Thrunite TN12 for much the same reasons. I don't use strobe, but the Firefly, Low and Medium output levels are very useful. I've used the High and Max levels on rare occasions, it's nice to know those levels are available if need arises.
Posted by: Robert_McCall

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 04:17 AM

The irony is that if the lady knew the various things we at ETS are pointing out, she likely wouldn't have gotten in that spot to begin with. The recognition of the dangers and taking the appropriate precautions often obviate the need to exercise the skills in the first place.
Posted by: quick_joey_small

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 08:50 AM

The most basic advice for when you think you are lost; Sit down!
might have made a difference. And if possible get out of the rain, so you can think without your head being hammered.
If as soon as she realised she wasn't sure which way the trail was, she had started shouting (if she had no whistle), that would probably have been enough.
But no one should ever be without a whistle. People have fallen in a ditch in towns and been stuck there for days because it was too noisy for a shout to be heard.
The other thread on this has degenerated into people joking about this womans death, so hopefully it won't be merged with this one. And ideally deleted.
qjs
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 01:04 PM

My Petzl E+ light has an SOS strobe, which was one of the many reasons I bought it. A strobe light would be cool, because it could also signal for you as you sleep.

Any other passive signaling ideas, for the tired or injured? Bright coloured clothing, SOS/HELP/HELF makers on the ground, flags flapping in the wind, colourful or relfective tarp for a shelter....
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 01:26 PM

Light a fire. Not precisely passive, but often effective. Caution: Do NOT do this if conditions are unfavorable.

Fires get attention, especially if you are in an isolated area.

Here's a paradox.If you know enough to know when and when not to light a fire, you probably know enough to not get lost in the first place, although you undoubtedly experience episodes of 'confusion.'
Posted by: Bingley

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 01:31 PM

Anxiety can be very destructive and debilitating. It can all but paralyze you with vomiting, uncontrollable bowel movements, stomach pain, etc. When it's serious enough to be a medical condition, it's nothing like the comparatively minute amount of anxiety that we feel, say, before public speaking. Some people afflicted with general anxiety disorder cannot travel at all.

I'd think the deceased didn't suffer from anything that bad, but I just don't know from the brief news article I read. If she did, getting as far as she did would be quite amazing.

I guess I'm also trying to make a public service announcement -- some real illnesses like anxiety disorder are often misunderstood, and they are not a reflection of character. People afflicted with them cannot just "toughen up" and "get over it."
Posted by: Russ

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 01:31 PM

I've wondered whether a small helium balloon on a long tether could take a cellphone (with a text message ready to Send) up to a point where cell coverage was available... Keeping a Spot or PLB in your pack would probably be easier.
Posted by: quick_joey_small

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 03:02 PM

What to do:

http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/m...-hiking-camping

qjs
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 03:45 PM

That's a neat article, and mostly I agree heartily with what he says - with a couple of notable exceptions:

"Except in canyon country, walking downhill, especially in forests and mountains, will often get you out."

That depends upon local conditions. In the Santa Catalina Mts, adjacent to Tucson, following that advice is an easy way to prolong your adventure. In that range, paradoxically, you should walk uphill.of course, if you are following your path with a good map, as recommended, this will be obvious.

Another statement with which I disagree: "The last thing you want is a search and rescue mission to begin - that always puts other lives at risk."

My, oh my my -all those poor, suffering SAR folks continually laying their lives on the line! You hear this from time to time and it is simply not true The SAR groups I have encountered are experienced, and especially in their area of operatiions are quite familiar with the terrain and conditions. The riskiest part of the job is driving to base camp. There are exceptions, but they are relatively trivial.

Basically, really god advice, but I have to mention these exceptions....
Posted by: quick_joey_small

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 04:36 PM


Thanks for the response hikermor. Why should one walk uphill in the Santa Catalina Mts? Is this the canyon country the article refers to?

Is this where going downhill gets you into a 'gravity trap'? (It's easy to go downhill thousands of feet to where you won't have the strength to get out of)


Russ wrote: > I've wondered whether a small helium balloon on a long tether could take a cellphone (with a text message ready to Send) up to a point where cell coverage was available..

How feasible is that? Could an ariel be extended high enough? Or would the balloon itself, if you can get it above the trees be a good signal? And would actually making the call do you any good. After all her husband knew she was in trouble without the texts. If you don't know where you are, you can't text them your location.

I wonder if a tape that could be stretched out on the trees would be a good idea. Rescuers then would only have to come across something hundreds of yards wide (with a message printed on it saying 'I am this way >', instead of the one square foot you are stood on. Does such a tape exist?
qjs
Posted by: bsmith

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 05:03 PM

Originally Posted By: quick_joey_small

I wonder if a tape that could be stretched out on the trees would be a good idea. Rescuers then would only have to come across something hundreds of yards wide (with a message printed on it saying 'I am this way >', instead of the one square foot you are stood on. Does such a tape exist?
qjs


biodegradable forestry flagging tape here: flagging

and prior to use, one could use a marker pen to write on the tape a name, date or.....
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 05:16 PM

The Catalinaas are deceptive. This is a mountain rangerising more than a mile aboe the surrounding lowland. The upper section, sporting a pine forest, while hilly, is fairly easy walking country, as is the lower portion, where the gradient eases as canyons and streams approach their base level. In the section in between, the canyons feature very steep cliffs and significant waterfalls. People, especially if they are unfamiliar with the terrain, can take days to work their way down canyon and they are exposed to significant risk is doing so.

In searching these canyons, SAR has learned to stay on the ridges and check places where the unwary are likely to hang up. If you know the territory, you can easily descend in a day.

This desert country is utterly unlike anything I have seen in the British Isles. The Catalinas are not unique, but they are close to a large population center and therefore snare many newbies.

I deal with funky cellphone reception routinely when on the (California) Channel Islands. The trick is to keep trying, shifting your location. Sometimes moving just a few feet will make a difference. Rather than bothering with a helium balloon, it would be just as easy to pack a PLB
Posted by: Russ

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 07:26 PM

Yep, a PLB is much easier and that signal goes out to a professional organization that get your location to the appropriate folks quickly. It won't go to someone (like me) who doesn't always read their texts until sometime later.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 11:23 PM

Originally Posted By: Russ
I've wondered whether a small helium balloon on a long tether could take a cellphone (with a text message ready to Send) up to a point where cell coverage was available... Keeping a Spot or PLB in your pack would probably be easier.


It would depend on the local terrain and the cell phone protocol (CDMA vs GSM). Per the Wikipedia article on cell sites, the effective line-of-site range can drop down to 3 miles in the mountains.

Originally Posted By: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_site#Range
The maximum range of a mast (where it is not limited by interference with other masts nearby) depends on the same circumstances. Some technologies, such as GSM, normally have a fixed maximum range of 35 kilometres (22 mi), which is imposed by technical limitations. CDMA and IDEN have no built-in limit, but the limiting factor is the ability of a low-powered personal cell phone to transmit back to the mast. As a rough guide, based on a tall mast and flat terrain, it is possible to get between 50 to 70 km (30–45 miles). When the terrain is hilly, the maximum distance can vary from as little as 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) to 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) due to encroachment of intermediate objects into the wide center fresnel zone of the signal


About the only thing I can see reliably working is satellite (SPOT, PLB), and MAYBE one of the more powerful handy talkies.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 05/31/16 11:37 PM

Mark, wouldn't your cell phone range be increased in the mountains - if you are on a high point and line of sight to the tower?
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 01:14 AM

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hikers-tough-call-to-wait-for-help-on-trail-was-right-at-first/
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 04:16 AM

I read that a little earlier today. Sounds like maybe she did have a whistle, etc. While she made some errors we really do have to acknowledge that sometimes you do most of the right things and still have a negative outcome.
Posted by: haertig

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 07:19 AM

In the area of the Appalachian Trail in Maine where this occurred, what would happen if you picked a compass bearing, any random bearing, and followed it? How long could you expect to hike cross-country before running into some form of civilization - a road, a dwelling, a major trail, a recreational area, etc.

I'm not saying following a random bearing is the best course of action. I don't know what the terrain is in Maine - could one even follow a compass bearing through the landscape up there? But if your plan is to hike out, you should probably follow a natural feature (river, etc.) or lacking that, a steady compass bearing. I'm just wondering how wilderness-y is the wilderness in that area. 5 miles? 20 miles? 50 miles?
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 01:26 PM

I am perplexed. In none of the articles I have seen is there any mention of an aerial component of the search. Does anyone know if there were wings in the air?

In my experience, once a search extends beyond about twelve hours (and most of them don't) you throw aerial resources into the effort. Reports do mention that she was on a high point where there probably would have been a better chance of spotting her.

I was involved in an equally confounding search over thirty years ago (the individual still hasn't been found) and after two weeks we were throwing everything we could possibly think of into the operation.
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 04:44 PM

Originally Posted By: haertig
In the area of the Appalachian Trail in Maine where this occurred, what would happen if you picked a compass bearing, any random bearing, and followed it? ...... I'm not saying following a random bearing is the best course of action. ...... But if your plan is to hike out, you should probably follow a natural feature (river, etc.) or lacking that, a steady compass bearing. I'm just wondering how wilderness-y is the wilderness in that area. 5 miles? 20 miles? 50 miles?
In most cases, a better idea would be to follow a compass bearing that would take you back across the trail. Provided of course that you remember which side of the trail you stepped off of into the woods. Trails are linear features, and I assume a major trail like the Appalachian would be reasonably prominent on the ground. So for example if the trail trends generally N-S, and you stepped off to the east side to pee, a West bearing should have you cross the trail again at some point.

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I am perplexed. In none of the articles I have seen is there any mention of an aerial component of the search. Does anyone know if there were wings in the air?
The article Doug linked seemed to indicate that this part of the trail is in very thick woodsy terrain. Even in relatively open terrain, the "POD" (Probability of Detection) of a single person on the ground from aircraft search is suprisingly low. In thick woods, unless she was able to get into a clearing, or make a smoky fire, she might have been next to impossible to spot from the air.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 05:59 PM

Aerial search is certainly not a panacea, but it is an additional tool. I have seen aerial search in "thickly wooded" (ponderosa pine forest) areas achieve success where ground teams had not yet been effective. In general, in my experience, we did not consider an area thoroughly searched until it had been covered by ground teams, dogs, and eyeballs in the sky.

We actually did some controlled experiments with determining the POD when victims were inert vs actively signalling(standing in the open and waving). Any effort by the victim increased POD sharply. One gathers that there ws an attempt at some sort of fire, and there was reflective material present at the campsite. ??

Something else bothers me. The searchers were able to determine that they had reached a point close to the victim, therefore they must have known that there was terrain over which they had not walked. now granted that travel is thick woods is tough, they had to know that there was at least one hole in their pattern.

This is tending toward Monday morning quarterbacking, which I don't care for, and I was certainly not there, and I am completely ignorant of the influences on their decisions, which I am sure were complex, not for that matter have I ever searched in their terrain. Still, questions nag...

I can tell you that when searches enter the final stages and desperation reigns, you will try anything. I spent am entire day with a psychic going to a spot in our search area where she visualized we would find our victim. That area had been thoroughly covered numerous times. What impressed me about the situation was the sincerity of the psychic - she wasn't after money (we used her transportation)- she simply wanted relief from her very troublesome vision.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 07:23 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Mark, wouldn't your cell phone range be increased in the mountains - if you are on a high point and line of sight to the tower?


Not necessarily. If there's a line of sight with nothing to reflect off of, then yes, you can get maximum range. But, and keep in mind that radio propagation is not my area of expertise. I'm relying on what I remember from a college radiation physics course:

Consider a scenario where you're trying to shout across echoing terrain. The echoes and reverberations will locally amplify, or cancel out, what you're saying depending on location. If the listener moves more a few feet in any direction, then the apparent strength of your shout changes. It's called constructive and destructive interference. There's also the problem of understanding the original message among all the echoes and reverberations.

Now, apply that logic to radio waves instead of sound waves. Bouncing off various terrain features creates multiple radio signals. They constructively or destructively interfere with each other and the original signal. The original signal can get canceled out, or so buried under all the reflected signals (Low signal to noise ratio) that the receivers in the cell and/or the cell site can't understand it.

I hope that's clear enough to get the concept across.
Posted by: Russ

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 07:56 PM

Those reflections are much more prevalent with the cell phone at ground level in an urban environment; the system algorithms are designed to deal with it. In the case of a cell phone on a mountaintop (or hanging under a balloon) out in the wilderness, the issue would be signal strength between the cell phone and tower which can be a serious issue, but a text can still get through with 1 bar of signal strength.

A PLB is still a better option.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/01/16 09:05 PM

Originally Posted By: Russ
Those reflections are much more prevalent with the cell phone at ground level in an urban environment; the system algorithms are designed to deal with it. In the case of a cell phone on a mountaintop (or hanging under a balloon) out in the wilderness, the issue would be signal strength between the cell phone and tower which can be a serious issue, but a text can still get through with 1 bar of signal strength.

A PLB is still a better option.


That's the reason the cell sites are located less then two miles apart in heavily built up areas.

And, yes. A PLB is a much better option.
Posted by: WesleyH

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/02/16 06:13 PM

A little more info here might be helpful. .

The Maine Warden Service official summarization of the event is here:

http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/05/25/r...woods/document/


18 pages in length. Gives the most credible info available on the matter. .
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/02/16 07:34 PM

Thank you for posting this. It answers some of our questions.

It's also rather hard to read. I can't help thinking that, despite initial missteps, she did a number of things right. She could have made it, if only she had been able to signal. Very sad.

Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/02/16 10:37 PM

Yes, indeed, thanks for posting this heart-rending document. It is tough to read.

Frankly, they should have kept at the search longer than a mere seven days - but that is hindsight. I hope the authorities will learn from this incident and do better in the future. No doubt, more vigorous efforts at signalling on her part would have resulted in a happier outcome.
Posted by: jshannon

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 12:51 AM

What were her efforts at signaling and what additional signaling would others have done to get found (other than using a plb)?
Posted by: jshannon

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 01:04 AM

After checking out the report it seems the only for sure thing she tried was cell phone texting but likely other things she had on her.

A few years ago a legally blind male was lost on the AT (think it was AT) and he was found by starting a fire as someone suggested.
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 01:06 AM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Frankly, they should have kept at the search longer than a mere seven days - but that is hindsight. I hope the authorities will learn from this incident and do better in the future.
Suspending a search is always a tough decision. One approach that is sometimes used is a matrix of factors to consider. The matrix doesn't make the choice for you, but does help to insure that all relevant factors are considered. Some of those factors include:

1. Survivability? - how likely is it that we can still make a live recovery?
2. Search area coverage? - what cumulative POD have we achieved for our search segments? How likely is it that we could have missed the subject in an area we searched?
3. Likelihood the subject is in the ROW (Rest of the World)? - is the subject even in our search area at all? Could this be a planned disappearance? An abduction?
4. Hazards? - how dangerous for searchers is it to continue?
5. Unresolved clues? - any clues we can follow up on? Have we found anything that would enable us to better focus the search?
6. Resource availability? - do we have enough searchers available to continue? You can burn through a lot of ground pounders in 7 days. Specialized assets such as trained dogs are usually in short supply.
7. Financial considerations? - a big one when air assets are being used. Agencies don't have infinite budgets for helo time.

It is easy to say "they should have kept at the search longer".
However, if you have searched the probable area thoroughly, and found not a single clue, what do you do then?
Search the same areas again and again?
Expand the search area to ever larger and less probable areas?
How many days can you ask volunteers to take off from work to keep searching?
What if you've already spent 3/4 of your helo budget for the year?
How long can you keep Park Rangers, Deputies, etc on the search and away from their other duties?

There are no easy answers.
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 02:49 AM

No easy answers, indeed. Imagine what SAR staff have been asking themselves. In an imperfect world, you make the best call you can with the best information at hand.

I imagine that protocols are in place in these situations, helping SAR personnel make the tough decisions in the heat of the moment.

I find myself coming back to the cell phone, though. These pre-smart-phone growlers run a long, long time, especially if data services are turned off. Lack of contact with a tower makes them transmit at max power, it's true, but they are still pinging like mad. In a major metro centre, that's just noise. In a wilderness search, that's a beacon. No triangulation from towers, and privacy laws are a major factor, but this lady's transmissions were not invisible. I wonder what could be done in the "hasty search" phase?
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 04:12 AM

Granted there are no easy answers, and you lay out very succinctly the many factors involved in the decision to suspend or not.

I have been in similar situations, where an unproductive search has continued and you are faced with the decision as to terminate. Two instances in my experience stand out. In both situations the intensive, ground pounding phase lasted for two weeks (in one case slightly more), followed by several efforts focused on particular localities and environments. In both cases there were very real concerns as to whether the individual sought was actually executing a planned disappearance - a question that has not been answered to this day, since both cases are still unresolved.

You mention the availability of resources, especially searchers, and this is where volunteer SAR organizations can really contribute, since an organization of reasonable size and competence can contribute bods for prolonged periods.

I don't know about the stated policy of other organizations, but the saving of lives is paramount within the National Park Service. Costs are typically minimized by using volunteers to augment a core cadre of trained staff. In or out of the NPS, I have never heard of a search being suspended because of costs.

I still feel that suspension of a search effort after seven days is cutting it off too soon. In this case, the victim was clearly still alive. It is a shame that her signalling efforts were not better or that searchers missed what might have been a significant clue.

By the way, if anyone encounters either Donald Lee Curtis or Paul Fugate, please tell them that we left a light on for them in southern Arizona.....
Posted by: UTAlumnus

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 04:14 AM

Not sure that privacy laws would even come into play. You wouldn't need to scan for content, just signal strength & frequency.

Another option would be to bring in several of the police operated cell towers that were in the news last year.
Posted by: CANOEDOGS

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 06:32 AM

everyone said everything that came to my mind but when I started out canoe tripping I even took a roll of kite string to play out if I did any exploring off the portage trail.
only used it a couple times because it was a mess to deal with.
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 12:01 PM

I've heard of cases where law enforcement was able to get mobile carriers to look for pings where a person or a group was missing in the wilderness.
Posted by: Roarmeister

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 05:35 PM

Originally Posted By: WesleyH
A little more info here might be helpful. .
The Maine Warden Service official summarization of the event is here:
http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/05/25/r...woods/document/
18 pages in length. Gives the most credible info available on the matter. .

Wow, when she stayed put, she really stayed put! While it makes sense to simply stop where you are when you get lost after a few days you would have thought she tried something after calming down and thinking out the situation.

I checked the provided coordinates on Google Earth - her camp was literally 500m from the AT and 700m from a railway bed road in heavily forested rugged terrain. She obviously didn't go much out of sight of her tent for many of those 27 days. If she had just packed up and walked in a southerly direction she might have self extracted. The K-9 search teams even missed her by even less of a distance so if she was staying really close to the tent she may not have left enough scent for the dogs to pick up. I wonder if she may have had a soft tissue injury that didn't show up in the autopsy that may have dissuaded or even prevented her from leaving her camp?
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 08:31 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Granted there are no easy answers, and you lay out very succinctly the many factors involved in the decision to suspend or not.
............snip..........
You mention the availability of resources, especially searchers, and this is where volunteer SAR organizations can really contribute, since an organization of reasonable size and competence can contribute bods for prolonged periods.
I can't speak to how things worked when you were active in SAR. I can say that in many cases these days, getting enough trained and qualified volunteers to maintain a search for longer than a week can be tough. This is especially true when there have been no clues found to suggest the subject is still alive or to focus the search in some area. It is easier to get volunteers on a weekend, but when the search extends into the work week many people find it hard to take more than a day or two off from their jobs.

I also suspect that the overall spirit of volunteerism is probably not what it once was in our country. For example I've read that many smaller communities that once relied on volunteer fire departments have had so much trouble getting enough people to join that they have been forced to go to paid departments. Many SAR teams don't have nearly as many trained/experienced members as they would like. SAR sounds exciting and glamorous, but when people find out how much work it takes to get and stay qualified, and that many missions are not glamorous, and are only Type 2 Fun (at best), they often drop out.

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I don't know about the stated policy of other organizations, but the saving of lives is paramount within the National Park Service. Costs are typically minimized by using volunteers to augment a core cadre of trained staff. In or out of the NPS, I have never heard of a search being suspended because of costs.
I doubt you will ever see any sheriff or ranger publicly admit that cost was a factor in terminating a search. However, these days virtually every public agency has less money to spend than they need. And a significant segment of the general public seems very focused on cutting government spending. You will note that here on ETS we have frequently had extended and heated debates on billing people for SAR missions.

The reallity is that when searches get long money (for supplies, helicopters, overtime for public employees, etc) does become an issue. The list of factors for suspending a search that I posted earlier was based on Chapter 16 in Find 'Em: A Guide for Planning the Missing Person Incident Response, two of the authors of which are retired NPS rangers. They also list "Political Pressures" as one of the factors.

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I still feel that suspension of a search effort after seven days is cutting it off too soon. In this case, the victim was clearly still alive. It is a shame that her signalling efforts were not better or that searchers missed what might have been a significant clue.
I totally agree. In a perfect world they would have searched longer, and resource availability and cost would not be an issue. Unfortunately, state police, sheriffs, rangers, and search managers don't work in a perfect world.
Posted by: haertig

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 09:24 PM

Originally Posted By: AKSAR
I can say that in many cases these days, getting enough trained and qualified volunteers to maintain a search for longer than a week can be tough.

I can tell you why that is, at least in my area, a few decades ago. When I first moved to Colorado, I went to several meetings and training sessions for one of the biggest SAR groups (that I am aware of) in the state. Despite being a trained paramedic and experienced hiker/backpacker/whitewater_kayaker/rock_climber, I was pretty much treated like dirt. Looked down upon. What a bunch of snobs. I stopped going after a few weeks because it seemed the folks there were nothing more than a good 'ol boys club who just wanted to stroke their own egos. Quite elitist. I found I wanted nothing to do with them. Initially I was willing and enthusiastic about learning SAR tactics and being trained so I could put some of my experience to good use. And I'm Mr. Jovial, friend of everybody, in person.

I hope all SAR teams aren't like that.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/03/16 10:44 PM

I certainly hope you are incorrect in your assessment of the contemporary spirit of volunteerism today, I would not bet the farm against that proposition. I harken back over thirty years - my involvement as a SAR volunteer ended in 1985. Although I spent the next fifteen years on the staff of Channel Islands National Park, we really did not have that many operations, and their conduct was not my prime responsibility.

I do know that back in the day, we could keep volunteers in the field for two weeks and longer. Many of us had schedules that offered a certain amount of flexibility. I, for instance, found an obscure section in the Department of Interior Manual that offered forty hours of administrative leave per annum for activities like volunteer SAR. Management came to support this, since there were obvious and recognized benefits to the community. Many others of my comrades worked out similar arrangements. Of course there were times, when I was undertaking field projects, when I was out of town and totally unavailable.

At the time I was active the organization (Southern Arizona Rescue Association) had an active membership of 100 or so We routinely could gather 20 or more at a moment's notice and even more with advance notice. When I last visited Tucson, SARA was prospering and even more competent than in my day - I was quite impressed by what I witnessed.

As an aside, it wasn't always that way. In the beginning, SARA couldn't pour (censored body fluid) out of a boot if there was a hole in the toe, and instructions on the heel. Operations got a lot better over the years.

Certainly, it would be a rash public official who would mention cost as a factor, but I am speaking of strategy sessions where we were all expressing our opinions frankly. When an operation was scaled back, it was more out of a sense that we had exhausted all our options, we were well past the point where the victim might have survived, and that indeed going over the ground again would be a squandering of resources.

Our situation was also fortunate in that helicopters were readily available from 1)Arizona Department of Public Safety and/or 2) the Air Force with their wonderful assortment of Hueys and gung-ho, Vietnam tested pilots. They did some wonderful stuff all under the guise of "training."

I am convinced that volunteer SAR is a bargain for the taxpayer and is cost effective. Furthermore, it think a healthy community will support volunteerism and not leave matters like SAR up to the "authorities." Grass roots involvement of the citizenry is a very good thing.

Personally, I can now look back on a fairly active life in which I can honestly say I have achieved a thing or two. I am proudest of, and received the most internal satisfaction from, SAR volunteerism, unquestionably. Many of the really strong friendships I have developed over the years were with fellow volunteers, based on situations where we really trusted each other to perform capably.

I am sure not every community has a significant population from which to draw volunteers, and won't necessarily have military resources handy. But when you have a situation like that, SAR is a good deal, especially for a successfully retrieved victim.

Perhaps you can tell that this is a subject near and dear to me. Enough for now.
Posted by: Bingley

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/04/16 08:41 AM

My impression of SAR folks here in the midwest has been positive. While association with them wasn't that long -- I got some training for SARTECH, but didn't end up joining them -- it's really hard to imagine the people I met to be anything like what haertig is talking about. They cared about pulling people out of danger, and they had a sense of realism about them (i.e., they were very far from Rambo, and they discouraged any would-be Rambo from joining them). They weren't out to make friends -- which made sense since I (and other people) were taking a class.

With many self-selected group endeavors, you often end up with people who are similar to you. It's hard to work together otherwise. So it's not a bad thing if you discover that you can't join a club because they don't like you and you don't like them.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/04/16 02:03 PM

Haertig is right - some groups are inclusive and some are exclusive. I suspect the inclusive groups enjoy the best success. If Haertig had tried his luck in Tucson, I think he would have had a more satisfactory experience.

I learned through our operations that not everyone had to be a gung-ho, super athletic climber superman type. We had lots of people who were quite other wise who contributed significantly and effectively.

At the time I was active, my employer was sending many of us to "management training" where we were exposed to some very good principles and practices. it was odd to see most of these concepts work effectively in our SAR organization, where no one had ever been to 'management awareness training", in contrast to the work place, where all that stuff was "file and forget."
Posted by: gonewiththewind

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/04/16 04:18 PM

The intensity of the SAR unit, and the immediacy of the need to do things well and learn as an organization, means that such organizations tend to develop such skills naturally.
Posted by: WesleyH

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 06/07/16 06:23 AM

Two last questions haunt me at this point. .

Granted, her cell phone had no signal, but did anyone check to see where her last Pings were? If you look at a topo map of where she was found, it is a very hilly area. I could understand how one moment she had service, the next zip. IIRC even in 2012 some location was possible via triangulation. But. . where was her last ping?

Also, given the steep contour, I wonder if perhaps she did not work her way down hill to a point where she could not get back to the elevation of the trail.

I went back to look at the report, but at 01:20CST the website is off line. .

Does anyone remember if a whistle was among the things recovered with her? A good whistle would have likely carried to the trail. . If she had one, blowing it even hourly would have likely brought help . . . .

Lastly, it seems apparent that she did not mark her way back to the trail with surveyors tape or even an occasional blaze on the tree. ..

This situation was SO survivable. . If for a few simple skills.
Posted by: WesleyH

Re: analysis of mistakes of hiker missing 27 days - 07/31/16 06:09 PM

Just noticed today, there is a show called North Woods Law. Saw an episode that featured the search and ended without her having been found. It is an interesting more behind the scenes look at what happened and how the search proceeded.


North Woods Law: Lost & Found
Season 3 Episode 9 Original air date 5 Dec 13 (Animal Planet)

It should be available on demand if you have cable.