M.U.S.H-y thinking

Posted by: TeacherRO

M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/27/12 06:01 PM

Mathematically Unlikely Scenarios Here. MUSH

Planning is good -- realistic planning is better.

If your bug out plan is walking 400 miles to grandpa's farm:

25 mi/day = 16 days = 32 MRE's. Roughly 32 pounds of food.

this assumes flat ground, good weather, no opposition/gridlock and being in shape and 2-3 mph. Near perfect conditions. ( Numbers are all estimates, use your own research)

Great

But what if--

you have a puppy and a small human with you you?

15 mi/day = 27 days =81 MRE's. 81# +/- of food in your pack

That's nearly 50% of your body weight in just food.

As always, do the math. Don't be MUSH-y.
Posted by: roberttheiii

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 12:06 AM

Good point. I also thinking assuming you can make good time in a situation that has forced you to bug out is pretty optimistic. I'd say bug out closer or have multiple locations, one far away if you have a car, one close if you don't have a car.
Posted by: Leo

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 12:49 AM

Traveling 400 miles on foot with dependents in a grid-down enviroment would be an epic. Probably not realistic for most people. I wouldn't expect to be able to carry enough food. It is probably only do-able if you can gather/scavange/hunt/buy food along the way. Which will add days to the trip.
leo
Posted by: widget

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 01:01 AM

I see the logic but cannot imagine taking a MRE's for any long journey. Too heavy and too hard to palate on a day-to-day basis.

I would imagine water would be the most difficult item to procure on a 400 mile, foot journey. Maybe in the Pacific NW or comparable area. In most areas it would be tough.
Posted by: Denis

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 05:45 AM

I think there is another issue with a 400 mile foot journey as a backup plan beyond the logistics of the trip itself (which, alone make it a non-starter for me). The bigger issue for me is that I can't envision a disaster that would make such a journey necessary.

For example, if my entire city were effectively laid waste and made inhabitable by some sort of natural disaster my closest family would be close to 400 miles away ... it is really the only place I could set down for an extended period of time in such a situation. But that doesn't mean I need a plan in place to walk there. Even in the unlikely event that I couldn't get out of my city with a vehicle, but somehow did get out, there would be help available closer than that - at least short term help (churches, Red Cross, etc).

Even barring finding short-term relief (maybe all the support organizations are all overloaded?) I think I'd be looking for some form of alternate transportation, like bus maybe, or even just a place to hole up so I could arrange for help from those outside of the affected area.

In short, any disaster I can envision is going to be localized and there will be safe places to go closer than my family 400 miles away. And if there isn't, what guarantee would I have that my family hasn't also been impacted and displaced?
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 06:42 AM

Is this a cheap shot at one of our members, who posted a related question a short while ago?

If so, I say it is completely unacceptable. And utterly embarrassing.

mad
Posted by: quick_joey_small

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 07:49 AM


I don't think it's possible even if you are alone.

from wikipedia
Each meal provides about 1,200 Calories ....
Each MRE weighs 18 to 26 oz.

BUT a man needs 2,500 calories a day if he's not doing any walking while carrying a load. So you best be talking 3 MREs a day, which then adds to the load and makes the calorie content higher again. And how are you going to carry only food? No sleeping bag, shelter, stove, fuel etc?
MREs contain water so are a bad choice anyway.
If you are serious about needing a bug out plan simply have food cached in the direction you will bug out. Or all directions if you don't know. Food is cheap and you haven't lost that money anyway. You have the food.

Sorry for providing no exact numbers but for some reason I can't find a simple 'what calories are you burning with x amount of load' formula on the net.

'this assumes flat ground, good weather, no opposition/gridlock and being in shape and 2-3 mph. Near perfect conditions'
is the reasoning of someone who is likeliest to die. This is equipped for survive not 'equipped for everything always going right'.
qjs
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 03:08 PM

Quote:
from wikipedia
Each meal provides about 1,200 Calories ....
Each MRE weighs 18 to 26 oz.


There is a lot of confusion regarding MREs in many of the Prepper BOB youtube videos. Many think that a single MRE per day per person is sufficient. There are even some who think even 2 MREs will be sufficient for two people for 3 days when bugging out. These folks are suffering from MUSH thinking.

25 miles per day Tabing is exceptionally good going whilst carrying more than 30-40lbs pack loads. Calorie requirements could be as high as 5000-6000 Calories per day i.e. 4-5 MREs i.e. 7-8 lbs. A British 24hr ORP weighs around 1.7kg 3.75 lbs and has around 4000-4500 Kcal.

To improve range a Bicycle with panniers and or trailer will help considerably. Mark Beaumont would typically cover 100+ miles per day carrying 60lb loads during his record breaking cycle around the world attempt. Again 5000-6000 calories was required. There is also a limit to the amount of edible calories that can be consumed by the body. Typically 6000-7000 calories. This is why Tour de France riders will lose weight in Mountain stages no matter how much they ate.

Making your own Ration packs can be more efficient (Energy Density) for conditions where water is readily available.

Ainsley Harriot Wild Mushroom Risotto 120gms 566Kcal
Salmon Fillet in Mustard and Dill Sauce 190gms 350Kcal
Knorr Thick Vegetable Soup 75gms 260Kcal
PhD Flapjack 75gms 286Kcal
PhD Flapjack 75gms 286Kcal
SIS Go Energy Bar 65gms 217Kcal
Fin Carre Dark Chocolate 100gms 524Kcal
Paterson Shortbread Fingers 180gms 900Kcal
Travel Lunch Mousse au Chocolate 100gms 411Kcal
Expedition Foods Beef Curry with Rice 162gms 915Kcal

Total Weight is around 2.5 lbs and has 4700 Kcal. This would be twice the energy density compared to an MRE.

The ability to travel 400 miles using a bicycle (assuming 80 miles per day - 6-8 Hrs pedaling a day) could be achieved with 5 of the above ration packs i.e. around 6kg or 13.5 lbs of food. Having the ability to carry 25+ lbs of gear is quite doable using a bicycle and trailer. The BOB Ibex trailer is rated for 70lbs. Walking/marching/tabbing self contained with MREs probably wouldn't get you more than 120 miles before running out of food.


Posted by: Fred78

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 04:42 PM

Most folks in the US are carrying around lots of spare calories on their person everyday due to being overweight, even just 10 lbs over gives you 35,000 calories you can burn. And a lot of people, myself included, have access to a bit more than that.

So I'll put forth the idea that water is the most important part of this equation, not how many mre's or whatever else food wise you think you'll need for a journey of this type.

In a scenario where you'll need to walk 400 miles, obviously things have deteriorated way beyond any semblence of normal life. In my opinion people will have to adjust to the idea that surving this isn't going to be comfortable with 3 meals a day, but just surviving to live another day to continue walking is all that's to be expected.

And I have my personal opinions about the ability of people to walk 400 miles, or ride a bike for 80 mi/day....and for the general populous it's not favorable.
Posted by: spuds

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 05:03 PM

Originally Posted By: Denis
there would be help available closer than that - at least short term help (churches, Red Cross, etc).

Even barring finding short-term relief (maybe all the support organizations are all overloaded?) I think I'd be looking for some form of alternate transportation, like bus maybe, or even just a place to hole up so I could arrange for help from those outside of the affected area.

We were forced out by the fires once....and fortunately had been traveling in a motorhome at the time and lived quite comfortably in a campground,that was very lucky.

Now the point of post....the FIRST responders to help folks were church groups and boy Scouts.They were first ON THE SCENE and beat Red Cross by 2 weeks easily,they didnt show until restrictions were lifted. They are a big organization and move at glacial speed.

The churches,Boy Scouts got EVERYTHING essential out there ASAP on the spot,from INSTANT donations from folks in the area.

In the campground a need for gloves...on to the radio it went,in an hour somebody would show with donated gloves and skullcaps......need produce,BAMM,a restaurant owner would show in an hour with boxes of produce.The kids and a troop leader or church had toy haulers set up with hot meals.

This went on for 2 weeks.The gooberment,NEVER saw em,the major aide organizations werent there. The same gov that tells you 3 days food and water will suffice.....ummm....NO!

The Red Cross.....they showed in my neighborhood area 2 DAYS AFTER we were allowed home.First sight we had of them entire time.

In time of immediate response,Red Cross just cant do it,but your locals will if its possible at all.

Churches and Boy Scouts,thats a mighty impressive response team for sure!
Posted by: spuds

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 05:28 PM

Originally Posted By: Fred78


And I have my personal opinions about the ability of people to walk 400 miles, or ride a bike for 80 mi/day....and for the general populous it's not favorable.
I agree Fred....real easy for the 20-30 year old athletes.....I was pretty strong then too. Now in my age bracket towards the downward slope of life expectancy....broken down backs,joints well used up....and Im lucky to not have a disabling condition like diabetes or major heart issues......for these folks,get real,its bug in time.

I can get hundreds of miles away in the truck,no roads,not happening.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/28/12 11:10 PM

Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
But what if--


Soon as you add this to any argument, your "math" goes right out the window.
Posted by: Mark_M

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/29/12 07:08 AM

Originally Posted By: Fred78
And I have my personal opinions about the ability of people to walk 400 miles, or ride a bike for 80 mi/day....and for the general populous it's not favorable.

I don't have any experience evacuating over long distances from a disaster, but I have done some long distance hiking in my youth. So comparing this survival with my experience and knowledge of thru-hiking and this is what you get:

Statistically, people starting the Appalachian trail, without prior training, is 9.5 miles per day, while a hiker that has rigorously trained will average 12.8 MPD. The top average after a month on the trail for both groups was 16 MPD, but the conditioned hikers hit this peak earlier. A good reference for this is Long-Distance Hiking: Lessons from the Appalachian Trail by Roland Mueser.

So a conservative estimate would put 400 miles at around 35 days. Weight loss is inevitable, and probably beneficial for most of us (certainly for me). But lack of adequate supplies of protien and fat over time will lead to strength and endurance loss, impaired critical thinking and higher risk for injuries. Carbs, sugar and endorphins can only take you so far. Most male AT hikers lose both fat and muscle mass during their hike due to insufficient food intake.

I would never rely on MRE's for bug-out food supplies. The caloric value doesn't balance out the weight and bulk problems. Lightweight, high-value foods such as jerky, air-cured sausages, nuts, oatmeal, beans, brown rice, whole-wheat pasta and hard cheeses are typical fare for thru-hikers and would work just as well in long-distance bug-out hike. Peanut butter, Nutella and chocolate are also popular hiking foods (though I question the value of chocolate). Most thru-hikers (including myself) budget around 1.5 lbs of food per day per person, but many claim that 1 lb is enough. Even thru-hikers don't carry more than 10 days of food due to size and weight concerns.

At my age and current condition, the possibility of traveling 400 miles by foot is unrealistic without outside assistance. Fortunately, I don't live in an area where I believe my threat types and damage radius extends that far that rapidly. So my survival plans are more focused on shelter-in-place and/or traveling more achievable distances, preferably in or on a motor vehicle, which doesn't necessarily require pavement. This presents two advantages: lower caloric needs to support lower activity levels and better cargo carrying abilities. Of course there are other potential risks with this plan. Hopefully the church and Boy Scouts will be there if my plans don't work out. ;-)
Posted by: hikermor

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/29/12 08:10 PM

This does indeed seems like a slam a what was a very productive and interesting thread , in which the OP was seeking comment, feedback, and information.

Hopelessly impractical? Well, certainly challenging, but let me cite a it of recent family history - to be precise, my wife's.

In 1918, her grandmother,living in Moscow and married to an officer in the Imperial Russian Army, was training to be a lady-in-waiting to the Czarina - not a good career move at that time.

They left in a hurry moving east through Siberia. My father-in-law was born in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, in 1920. At one point, they were saved from capture only when the dog sled carrying the family valuables overturned, distracting their pursuers. They often swapped sewing needles for provisions in poverty-stricken villages along the way.

My FIL, by way of Shanghai and Seattle, wound up at Hollywood High, where he double dated with Jean Harlow, fought in the South Pacific in WWII, and fathered and raised the most gorgeous and intelligent lady in the universe.

Those are just the highlights, and it certainly is an epic. I'll bet they would have been happy to trade it for a mere 400 mile ramble in the eastern US.

If I were to plan for the original scenario, I would adopt a hybrid strategy - let's start in the vehicle, but carry along enough that we can switch to bike or foot, or charter a helo (whatever). You never know what will come up down the way.
Posted by: gonewiththewind

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/30/12 12:50 AM

Nice, Hikermor. The human body can surprise you, either way, when the chips are down. Impractical, difficult, damn near impossible, yes. You just don't know what you can or will do until faced with the situation. I would take some lessons from the North Vietnamese who pushed loaded bikes down the Ho Chi Minh trail. With an extension on the handlebars, a heavily loaded bike can be managed for long distances in difficult terrain. That is pushing the bike, not riding it. The Japanese used the same technique in WWII and accomplished what the British thought was impossible. A bike can carry a lot of food.

I will not bore you all with war stories, but I have done some extreme distances with heavy loads before. It seemed impossible at the time, but I survived. I was younger and leaner then though.
Posted by: Fred78

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/31/12 04:20 AM

Not sure if the "slam" comment was directed at me specifically, but that wasn't the intent of my comment.

What I was trying to get at was that food isn't necessarily so important, since most of us carry around spare calories...is it going to be comfortable and fun, no.

Let me illustrate what I see as the problem that's being overlooked:

1 gallon of water weighs 8.35 lbs

The min amount that I normally see mentioned to keep the human body functioning every day is 1 qt or 2.08 lbs (approx), so for 16 days at 1 qt you'll be needing 33.4 lbs of water...not so bad. But wait, that's just to keep the body alive, so if you're going to be exerting yourself (sweating) maybe you'll need more water...say 1 gal. So now for 16 days you'll be looking at 133.6 lbs of just water.

And if you're looking at 35 days of walking:

1 qt/day=73.1 lbs, 1 gal/day=292.25 lbs

Would you be able to source some water enroute? Probably, but I see water as the main issue for surviving this scenario not food. Would the food be wonderful at making things better, absolutely!

The human body is capable of fantastic feats, as history shows us that's absolutely true. However, how many more common examples are there from when things didn't work out so well? I'm pretty sure those numbers would dwarf the success/survival examples throughout history.

And nowdays peoples idea of hardship, really isn't.

So, overall I think this scenario looks bleak for most folks. Would there be stories of incredible survival against the odds, undoubtedly...but they'll be the exception not the rule.

My 2 cents worth...
Posted by: TeacherRO

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 08/31/12 10:35 PM

Bike with modified trailer ( carries food, camp gear child, puppy)

8 mph x 10 hours / day = 80 miles

80x5 days = 400 mi

5 days = 15 mre's ~ 15#
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/02/12 11:47 AM

I have to admit, I'm a little taken aback by the "It's impossible!" thinking of some people in this group. It's so intense that we now have a seperate thread devoted solely to slamming the OP?! Come on!

Ok, so if this big, ugly, hairy, scary situation ever happened, you would just dig in and not even consider such a trek, no matter what. We got it.

Nobody said it would be easy. It's impractical, sure, but that's what makes the thought exercise so practical. I'm pretty sure the OP stated that this isn't the be all and end all of her preps, but rather one level of preparedness she's working on. Never did she say this is her only plan or the only scenario she's working on.

This scenario might never happen, but in working on a plan for it, might the OP actually be better prepped for more realistic situations? I think so. It's all about finding solutions. Can you carry 400 miles worth of water on your back? No. But you can carry to means to make 400 miles worth of water. If you're prepared to make 400 miles worth of water, would you be better off in a bug-in scenario? You bet you would!

There's a solution to every problem so why don't we focus on those, instead of slamming the OP. If you have nothing to add to that discussion then I recommend taking my Grandpa's advice and zipping your lip.
Posted by: Fred78

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/02/12 10:22 PM

If questioning what I see as a serious flaw in the plan isn't adding to the discussion, but considered slamming...ok I'll move on and won't bother you kind folks ever again.
Posted by: spuds

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/02/12 10:50 PM

Fred,I dont think it was directed at you ,hope you stay and cont to offer your views.

As if anyone cares what I think,just a friendly reply to you.

I thought the replies were valid in all forms.Then again,I dont have problems accepting a comment FWIW,or not,for that matter,I respect all have opinions as valid as any other.

As for the OP in the beginning,dont care to go there either way.It is what it is as one may choose to interpret.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/02/12 10:53 PM

Not directed to you at all, Fred. I appreciate that the OP wasn't hijacked, and I think that this thread has generated an interesting discussion too, but I think there's probably a more tactful way to have this discussion than with an opening scenario that's clearly inviting a dog pile on the OP.

I apologize if I offended you, Fred, or anyone else. That wasn't my intention. As I said, I think the discussion in this thread is interesting. It just seems like the reason behind the thread was a personal dig and that bugs me. ETS is nothing if we don't respect each other-
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/03/12 03:36 AM

Hope you'll stick around, Fred. You just had the misfortune of walking into the middle of an (extremely rare) domestic punch-up. Believe it or not, we're pretty darn civil around here (excepting this thread) and take considerable personal pride in that fact.

Cheers,
-Doug

Edit: +1 on what bacpacjac said: "ETS is nothing if we don't respect each other."
Posted by: hikermor

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/03/12 01:36 PM

I second Doug's sentiments. Nothing wrong with sparking discussion...
Posted by: spuds

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/03/12 05:47 PM

Ya know,it really boils down to this.

Is it practical from our current viewpoint? No.

Is it possible from a historical study? YUP!

People have been buku prepared and died from a toothache.Others have been trapped by a rockslide,cut off their foot with a pocket knife and lived. Who is to say how it will play out?

So yeah,anything is possible and this is hardly an absolute failure of a plan,just not one I'd care to undertake.But I wouldnt bet it couldnt be done,many many many have done far tougher treks.And without a bunch of preps either.

Point was made when your life is on the line its AMAZING what can be done.
Posted by: Denis

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/04/12 05:43 PM

Originally Posted By: bacpacjac
I have to admit, I'm a little taken aback by the "It's impossible!" thinking of some people in this group. It's so intense that we now have a seperate thread devoted solely to slamming the OP?! Come on!

I agree, such a feat is not impossible; but the question is: is this a course of action that one should plan for?

Regardless of whether we are talking about primary or back-up plans, an important aspect of preparedness, in my mind, is evaluating risks and understanding what scenarios make the most sense to prepare for.

One of the things I really I like about ETS is that it puts realistic bounds on preparedness and survival. We typically don't look at unrealistic or improbable events (i.e., this is not a survivalist site). We don't plan for apocalypses, alien invasions or the fall of civilization. This isn't a forum to figure out how to live in a Mad Max wasteland.

But, even within the described purpose of the Natural Disasters & Large-Scale Emergencies sub-forum, I simply cannot think of any reasonable scenario where a family in the US or Canada would have to undertake a 400 mile evacuation by foot.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I simply cannot understand how planning for this either makes sense or fits with the confines of ETS.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/04/12 08:01 PM

The current economy, and the probability of it worsening, makes me think that 400 mile journeys are a plausible scenario for more and more people. Travelling to look for work, to relocate, or to "go home" are all things that happened during the great depression, and I don't think they're beyond the realm of possibility for a lot of people today. People who might not have the money to afford transportation or lodgings during such a trip.

I don't think this is the streotypical survivalist fantasy we try to avoid here on ets. I think it's a growing reality that more people are facing. Ask anyone you know who's living pay check and worrying about losing a job but has family in "X" or a line ln a job in "Y".
Posted by: Denis

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/04/12 09:06 PM

Originally Posted By: bacpacjac
The current economy, and the probability of it worsening, makes me think that 400 mile journeys are a plausible scenario for more and more people.

400 mile journeys - absolutely; I bet it's happening already. 400 mile journeys by foot - I'm doubtful.

Even still, the thing is we aren't simply talking about if such a journey could become necessary for some people; we are talking about if it makes sense to plan and prepare for one. I seriously cannot think of a single scenario where a 400 mile foot journey would be the only, or even a good, course of action.

I have no problem simply discussing what such a journey would take or historically how people have done this; in fact such a thread would probably be very enlightening. What I have a hard time with is a discussion where someone is seriously considering this as a back-up plan ... especially without first giving really good thought - and an explanation - of why this option is even being considered and what risk it is a viable mitigation strategy for.

Originally Posted By: bacpacjac
I don't think this is the streotypical survivalist fantasy we try to avoid here on ets. I think it's a growing reality that more people are facing. Ask anyone you know who's living pay check and worrying about losing a job but has family in "X" or a line ln a job in "Y".

In most, if not all, of these types of situations I would bet bus fare to the location 400 miles away is more affordable than the cost of preparations needed to cover the same ground by foot (bus fare in my case would be $140 for one adult & a child). If preparing for this type of eventuality, putting cash aside is a much more wise course of action compared to buying a bike trailer, lightweight tent, water treatment system, stocking up on dehydrated food, etc.

Think about it this way, if someone came to the forum and said: Things are slowing down economically in my area, I don't have a car, and I'm afraid that in a few months I might be out of a job and would have to travel 400 miles to my home town and live with my family for a while. How should I prepare for this?

Does anyone think a reasonable suggestion would be to prepare for a foot journey? Of course not. We should be looking for the best way to prepare for bad things, the way that gives us the greatest chance of success with the least amount of personal risk.
Posted by: JBMat

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/04/12 09:07 PM

Could I walk 400 miles to my bug out location?

Probably. If I was with wife only, not toting the two cats, minimal loads and I was prepared to move at night, hide during the day, beg/borrow/steal what I needed - basically what I did back in the day in what was then SERE school.

Is it feasible? Not unless I absolutely had to. As in, the zombies have overrun my town and/or the baddies have announced plans to nuke my area.

The best scenario is I determine it is time to beat feet well before the event happens. I load the SUV with stuff and leave off to the safe point. If nothing happens, oh well, good training for when it does. If the fecal matter hits the rotary air impeller, good for me for not being in the general area.
Posted by: Teslinhiker

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 09/05/12 04:06 AM

This past Labor Day weekend, I did a 4 day outing that averaged 18-20 mile days over easy to intermediate terrain along some well established trails, firebreaks, old Forest Service access roads etc with elevation gains/loses of around 1000 feet each. Even though I am in very good walking/hiking condition, there is no way I would want to attempt this for 400 miles while carrying my 40-45 lb pack every day even on a good road surface such as concrete, asphalt or an all weather gravel road. As it was,I suffered from a very rare occurrence of blisters on my right foot that could of been an ugly debilitation if this was a forced 400 mile foot march.

Also the OP did not mention of water that needs to be carried. On a couple of days of high 80's temperatures, I was drinking upwards of 2 liters per hour and could of used more if I had it to spare as this time of year, the area I was in, many creeks and streams that just a month ago were overflowing their banks with mountain snow runoff, have all but dried up. I had to keep water consumption in check as these usual water sources were no longer available. Conversely in other areas, especially in some US states, severe drought conditions would make water supply that much harder for one person, let alone multiple people in your group.

Like others have similarly commented, the likelihood of anyone having been forced to do this to get to Grandpa's farm in a bug out situation is not realistic in terms of logistics, physical exertion etc in the terms of the OP's scenario.

People just do not really realize how far 400 miles is. Go to Google Maps and do some mileage calculations. For example, Denver Colorado to Albuquerque, NM is just shy of 400 miles. Columbus Ohio to Nashville Tennessee is about 400 miles. Once you get a sense of scale and area that needs to be traversed, are you really sure you still want to undertake this bug out Grandpa's farm?

Posted by: TeacherRO

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 10/11/12 06:31 PM

I often find similar M.U.S.H-y thinking in regards to pack weight and miles traveled.

40# is a heavy pack. Its very heavy for an out-of-shape city dweller.

Most people - hikers - travel 2-5 mph on foot.
Posted by: ILBob

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 10/11/12 11:16 PM

A 400 mile hike is unrealistic for virtually everyone.

I walk 3.25 miles every morning and take 3-10 mile hikes on weekends.

I would not try more than a 20 - 40 mile hike.
Posted by: wildman800

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 10/14/12 05:55 AM

Actually, I have a plan for walking home from work regardless of how many miles I might be from home in the event of an EMP Event.

My planning is extensive, with agreements with friends already in place that includes locations where I can rest and resupply along the possible paths I would be using.

It is not such a trek that can be taken lightly with any hope of success. Only proper planning, perseverance, and a combination of patience, skills, & some prior experience can make such a plan at least feasible.

That's my story.
Posted by: NorthCarolina

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 10/23/12 09:34 PM

The Appalachian Trail is somewhat in excess of 2,000 miles and a LOT of people have completed that hike. So, rather than making a monster out of a 400 mile trek, look at it as being just 20% of the AT. At ten miles per day, it takes 218 days to hike the AT. Allowing for 30 "zero" or "nearo" days, that's a shade over 8 months. That's doable.

Applying the same math to a 400 mile trek, we get 40 days of active hiking. Allowing one day of rest per two days of hiking we get a total of 60 days, or two full months. That's very doable.

If you break a 400 mile journey down into increments of roughly 10 miles per day, there would be plenty of daylight left to set automatic fishing reels* and / or fish traps* in any promising body of water nearby while setting snares* or foraging for wild plant foods* . Unless you are being pursued, if the food supply where you are is plentiful, stay there a couple days to recharge. Smoke or dry some of the fish or game, dry some of the fruit and roots, eat as much as you can, then stand up and resume the journey.

I'm not saying that a 400 mile hike to find help is desirable or even reasonable (was there no kind person to be found any closer?), only that it is doable.

The best way to train for something is to do it. You don't train to run by doing push-ups and you don't train to lift weights by taking long walks.

My information about hiking says that, within a week (in most cases), the body responds to the new demands being made on it and that 1,000 pound pack will seem to be a whole lot lighter and there will be a spring in your step that hasn't been there for years.

I'm not making light of that long journey, only trying to be reasonable in my appraisal of it. It can be done. It has been done. It is being done even as I write this (Oct. 23, 2012) and it will be done -- again and again.

The most serious hindrance that might keep any of us from making such a journey, should it become our best option, is fear. Conquer that and the rest will fall into place.

* Legal Notice: such activities may be regulated or even illegal in some jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to know and obey governing law. If other humans are nearby, you might find the necessary nutrition at lower caloric cost to you by either buying food or dumpster diving. If you've been out on the road for a while, you probably look and smell like a bum and would thus fit right in with the other folks checking the contents of bins. With survival at stake, how many inhibitions can you afford?
Posted by: TeacherRO

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/30/13 07:38 PM

Agreed that it is possible...but not to carry 60 days of food with you to do it. most people carry only 5 days.
Posted by: clearwater

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/30/13 08:53 PM

"In June, three men set out to walk across 600 miles of Alaskan wilderness and they set themselves some rules, as they would go. They would not forage, or hunt, or receive food deliveries of any kind, along the way. They would carry everything they needed."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5551705
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/30/13 10:23 PM

Originally Posted By: clearwater
"In June, three men set out to walk across 600 miles of Alaskan wilderness and they set themselves some rules, as they would go. They would not forage, or hunt, or receive food deliveries of any kind, along the way. They would carry everything they needed."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5551705
Kids, don't try this at home! smile

The gentleman intervied, Roman Dial, is a true Alaska wildman. Among other adventures he has several times won the Alaska Wilderness Classic. (Though one could fairly say that anyone who has managed to even finish the Alaska Wilderness Classic is a winner.)

Any of you folks who think you are really tough should consider trying the Classic. The rules are pretty simple. Start at point A, finish at Point B. Human powered. Carry all your gear, no outside support. What route you take is up to you. I know several Wilderness Classic racers. They are all great guys, but are also all certifiably crazy. For info on the 2013 Classic see 2013 AMWC Race Info. For info on past races, see The Classic Report
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/31/13 12:14 AM

Hopefully Krista comes back and reads these updates. I think we scared her away with our (for the most part) collective refusal to entertain the thought of the plan she wanted help with in the thread that gave rise to this thread.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/31/13 12:33 AM

Reading this entire thread is truly fascinating. One conclusion is that some of us are definitely not hikers, nor do they intend to be. Nothing at all wrong with that; this forum is enriched by a wide variety of viewpoints and opinions honestly expressed...
Posted by: Chisel

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/31/13 05:02 AM

Not related to this thread in particular but related to BPJ's remark :

Quote:
Hopefully Krista comes back and reads these updates. I think we scared her away


I am afraid Krista is not the only one.
Another ETS lady is missed and we'll be happy to see her back : Susan

Having more ladies in ETS is beneficial to get a more balanced view on things.
Posted by: Jeanette_Isabelle

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/31/13 06:41 PM

In what scenario would someone bug out 400 miles on foot?

I’m prepped for a temporary disruption (two months). I have a vehicle and several places to bug out. One is a goat farm, another is sixty acres of land. All of them are not even 100 miles away, let alone 400.

Originally Posted By: Chisel
Having more ladies in ETS is beneficial to get a more balanced view on things.

How can I help?

Jeanette Isabelle
Posted by: Jeanette_Isabelle

Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking - 03/31/13 10:47 PM

Originally Posted By: IzzyJG99
In my experience in forums regarding the topics ETS focus on there are very few women. There's quite literally only 3 or 4 women on ALL of the EDC Forums. Which is a drag because women are the original EDCer's. Original preppers, too. Lord knows going out into the World with three small children requires a practically military genius level intellect of planning. Me? Lord...I'd forget to wear pants if I didn't put up post-it notes to remind me.

I’m single, no children; I have learned to EDC enough gear to sustain me for a period of 24 hours.

Jeanette Isabelle