Playing the odds - interesting but not factual

'interesting but not factual'

Some scenarios are fun, sexy and not at all likely:

-- Car going into water

- A commercial aircraft crashing, and passengers surviving in a wilderness area

-Emergency cutting of seat belts

Please fell free to add your own

The fear of a wild, Escape from New York-type situation after a major natural disaster. With respect to Katrina, in particular, so much of what we saw or read about turned out to be fantasy and gossip. Some news outlets like the Times Picayune and LA Times had the integrity to admit that fact after some time had passed and more investigating had been done. That said, there were also some horrible things that happened after Katrina that most folks haven't heard much about so I'm not saying that nothing bad happened. Just not much of the senational stuff (Remember the piles of dead bodies stacked in the freezers at the Superdome? Or the heated firefight at one of the bridges between "looters" and police that turned out to be the police and private security contractors firing on each other?)

With so many videos from the Indonesian and Japanese tsunamis, I think most people are getting away from the impression that a tsunami is this towering wall of water that breaks and crashes down onto the beach. Tsunamis generally don't crest and break on shore. The water rises and just keeps pouring ashore.

That hiding up under a freeway overpass is the safest place to be when a tornado passes overhead. In fact, the overpass acts like a funnel and actually increases the wind speed under the overpass, making any flying debris that much more dangerous as flying missiles. Better to seek a ditch in open ground away from any vehicles or other large objects that may get blown on top of you.

And lastly, zombies!

Not clear what you mean by "not factual."

In the category of "not at all likely" I would put: armageddon/TEOTWAWKI and my American Airlines flight crashing. Yet, large-scale EMP damage, cyber attacks and plain crashes are not beyond the realm of possibility (one of the reasons I like aisle seats, exit rows and not wearing nylons on planes).

Prior to this past August, I also would have put Earthquake Damage in Washington, D.C. in the extremely unlikely category. Yet, a house across the street lost part of its chimney, the National Cathedral suffered millions of dollars of damage and the Washington Monument is cracked and still closed.

If I lived in the Pacific Northwest, I'd be preparing for a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake, though it is unlikely in my lifetime.

One decade and three months ago, airplanes crashing into office buildings seemed beyond the imagination of all but Tom Clancy.

I haven't crashed a car in the three decades I've been driving, yet I still wear a seatbelt, like having airbags and have the means to cut it should my car go off the GW Parkway into the Potomac. Moreover, I like having the ability to assist someone else should I happen upon an accident. Cars sometimes do end up in the water and there is a lot of water around here.

Thanks to some brave bystanders and professional responders, plane crash victims survived the Potomac on a freezing, snowy January day (Air Florida flight #90 on January 13, 1982).

I've been hiking for decades, have never gotten lost and know a lot of backpackers but haven't known anyone who needed SAR, yet I still carry a compass, matches, etc.

Granted, some things are a lot more likely than others. The likeliest things I prepare for are temporary power outages, water service disruption and being stranded in the car.

Those three situations can arise for a number of reasons -- some likelier than others.

I think the question is not about the likelihood of something, but about whether something is true or not. Like the perception that hiding under a freeway overpass is a good place to take shelter from a tornado, when it is actually more dangerous than in open ground.

Okay, thanks.

Actually, looking at the original list, I guess unlikely also can enter it. So, either way. Have at it, folks!

How about breaking it down into what you have, or expect to have, gone through.

Likely (what you have been through more then once, and you expect to happen again with some frequency): For me that's power outages, loss of water, boil water order, wildfires, minor earthquakes, car breakdowns, and car breakins.

Unlikely (have been through it once, or has real potential to happen): Car accidents, home break ins, criminal assault, loss of computer data, house/car fire, large (knock over furniture, some structural damage) earthquakes.

Possible, but very unlikely: TEOWAWKI/PAW, tornados, flooding, catastrophic (flatten city) earthquakes, hurricanes, and blizzards. I know the great plains and east coast people are giving me strange looks right now, but outside of a couple of minor tornados/waterspouts about 20+ years ago, none of that has happened in my immediate locale.

It's an odds game and you play it like this.

Basically, you look at the numbers and say of every X units (miles, number of people, hours of use) Y% suffer (catastrophic failure of some kind).

Then you need to trend Y over t (time) and you get a real sense of risk.

That's why for me the most terrifying thing is a big plate of cheese fries, because they are a clear and present danger to my health, I have the numeric evidence to bear this out. I still love to have them now and then.

In fact, many of the most risky things- the stuff that WILL kill you - are totally under my control!

Hypertension
Smoking tobacco
High cholesterol
Poor diet
Overweight and obesity
Physical inactivity
Alcohol Abuse
Indoor air pollution from solid fuels

Also on the list is Hospitalization (infections)

Driving is another major risk (as compared to any number of other things that could go wrong).

You're also taking your life into your hands when you climb anything taller than your knees (falls kill so many people every year).

Somewhere way, way down the line is being in a plane landing in the Potomac or Hudson or Long Island Sound, and I also factor into that the fact that the plane has advanced safety systems, highly trained crew, and over-engineered equipment.

The fun(?) stuff is the outrageous "Tom Clancy" grade stuff...makes a great story because it's so very, very rare.

Now we all like to think of the classic 1-2 punch of "terrorist in airplane v. office building" which, I think before the September 11th attacks was completed by one Andrew Joseph Stack III, 53, of north Austin. Then we had the Twin Towers and then....well, nothing really since then. Certainly a few drunk and confused passengers being walloped by passengers and crew who THOUGHT they were on a plane that was to be taken over... but I'll put that into the "not worth worrying about" category.

Many people have this image of the "cities emptying out" and I think that they imagine starving hordes marching across lawns and attacking anything that moves (we often use "zombies" as a proxy for "poor underclass who don't look like me" in these scenarios). Yet the evidence just isn't there for this as an issue worth much consideration. The book "Paradise in Hell" really gets into the strong communities that form in natural disasters.

Finally, there's that most curious of phenomena, the sense that in any emergency you're on your own and your at greater risk from sharing, helping and being a part of the solution.

The "I'll do OK by myself" attitude can actually kill you.

Which reminds me of a joke that one of the priests at my high school told me:

Once, there was a home in a valley and a dam was about to break nearby.

Emergency workers in a truck came to the door of a man and told him to get away with them in the truck.

"No, I'll be OK, God will provide for me" he told the workers.

Sure enough the dam broke and the water began to quickly rise. Again the workers came, this time in a boat, and he refused to get in, saying, "No, I don't need your boat, God will take care of me."

The water rose higher and higher, and the man went to his roof. A rescue helicopter came, and lowered a basket and a rescue technician. "No need for that, God will look after me" said the man, and just then the swirling floodwaters pushed hard and the house collapsed under him and washed away, smashing and drowning the man in a torrent of debris.

The man arrived in heaven, and asked God why he'd been allowed to die so horribly. God replied, "I sent people with a Truck, A Boat and A Helicopter, what more did you want?"

My point is that one of the most important "it just ain't so" scenarios is the one where people don't band together.

Well said Martin. Well said.

My favorite unlikely scenario is being attacked/killed by predators in the wilds. Being chewed upon by a mountain lion, black bear, coyote, rattlesnake, etc. essentially ain't gonna happen. You are more likely to suffer death or injury at the hands of honey bees or dogs (well, they don't have hands, but you get the point).

Compared to deaths and injuries resulting from falls and drowning, the injuries from wild animals are hardly worth bothering about. It follow that carrying weapons to ward off those attacks is a waste of resources. There are good reasons for weapons, but wild animals are not among them.

Probably the most hazardous activity in which we engage is driving our vehicles.

Well, the car in water thing has happened to me before due to flash floods. Turned out to be waist deep as I got out of the car. Also discovered that power windows don't work after that. I now keep a seatbelt cutter and window hammer in the vehicle.

Low probability like being the wrong place and time when another shooter misses? I still think you should carry a "blow out" kit in your range bag and hunting gear, but statistically speaking it almost never happens.

Sexy scenarios? Like being stranded on a tropical island with Natalie Portman and Emmanuelle Beart?

A man can dream.

During our train-up for Personal Security Detail (PSD) in Iraq we were taught to prepare, pre-plan and train for two scenerios with equal emphasis: the most likely thing that can happen and the worst thing that can happen.
leo

Zombies are interesting* but not factual

A cold is factual, but not interesting



* and popular!

Here in WA, we have floods: 10-yr floods, 50-yr floods, 100-yr floods, 500-yr floods. The strange thing is that we've had three 100-yr floods in less than 20 yrs. Maybe it's just Ma Nature messing with the actuarys' minds.

Have you noticed that the Law of Averages never says 'never'?

If it happens once in 10,000 years and you're the one standing under the lightning bolt, you just feel different about the odds, somehow.

Sue

Good point -- But don't put all your thoughts or equipment into lighting proofing, its still not all that likely.

Actually, the odds are more likely for a person to be struck by lightning than to win a lottery.

NOAA says about 40 people are killed by lightning each year, and about 360 are injured by it. The odds are 'only' 1/10,000 that you will be hit in your lifetime.

Where's my tin foil hat?

Sue

More interesting, but highly unlikely events;

Cougar attacks ( the cat kind)

Ufo/ Zombie uprising or super eight being a viable format.

Rappelling in any way shape or form


Boring but quite likely;

Stuck in the airport

Kitchen/ engine fire

Loss of electric power

Um yes. I assumed that one is not LEO or active duty.

For many of us, rappelling is a fairly frequent activity. Most of my recent rappels have involved recovery of archaeological and paleontological materials from vertical sea cliffs, not just sport climbing.

At my age, the feline-cougar attack is far more likely than the primate-couger attack...

...lol smart remark here about tip-up carry!

Shark attack is another cool, but very unlikely event.

But factual.

From the cruise ship thread, how about the comment about a liferaft getting sucked under as the ship sinks below them. The MythBusters tried to test this claim IIRC and couldn't generate any real downward suction in their experiments. Has there ever been a documented case of this happening? (Watching Leo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet get sucked under in the movie Titanic doesn't count. )

Then again, the MythBuster crew didn't have a cruise ship the size of a small town to experiment with.

I'm curious about that, too. My dad did 2 tours on aircraft carriers during the Viet Nam War. He told me they were trained to get a certain distance out if forced to abandon ship to avoid being sucked under when it sank. But I don't know if that was based on any sound science, either. Although of course the USN has plenty of wartime experience with ships being sunk.

And yet, and yet... There is a post in this forum right now about some kids in survival training getting mauled by a bear...
(I have not read the post yet, so I may have the details wrong, if so, sorry.)

Three, or was it four, times for me. The worst time was in December, or January about 16 years ago, and the water was cold.
That was the only time I ever got excited in an emergency.
Got a case of the giggles that did not want to go away.
But that was a VERY bad winter for me, as my mother had just died in a car crash a few days before... All kinds of things one after the other...
It actually surprised me, as I am normally almost TOO calm in emergencies. When our building caught fire, and lost power, I handed out flashlights to people walking down the fire stairwell(which was filled with smoke and pitch black because it was the backup generator exploding that took out the emergency generator, and THAT took out the special generator that was supposed to keep the fire stairwell lighted and smoke free!?!? ).
For that matter, I was not even excited while I was having my heart attack this last December. I sometimes think that there is something a little off with my adrenalin response.

I am more likely to have a trauma bandage with me than a band aid when ever I am out and about, because I figure that a little cut(while MUCH more likely) is not too dangerous if treatment is delayed, but a piercing wound is not something where you want to have to improvise on the spot where time is of the essence.

That's my philosophy too, James. Mom is translated by some cultures to mean "Provider of the bandaids" so I'm very likely to have both but, I edc a bandana, not bandaids, in part because bandaids aren't nearly as time sensitive are getting a pressure bandage into action.

I always tuck a few bandaids in my wallet. It is amazing how often they come in handy - someone has an owwie, you whip out the bandaid, problem solved and life goes on. I also EDC (or try to) a bandanna in my back pocket - multipurpose and extremely versatile. If you need pressure right now, you get the bandanna right now. The hospital can readily deal with contamination issues, just as long as you get there alive and breathing. There is other stuff in the FAK, which varies in size, depending upon the situation. Lots of sterile dressings in there.

Jac, you need bandaids? I thought real mothers just kissed and made it well......

But...one incident is sad, but not mathematically important. Getting attacked by a wild animal is extremely unlikely. Somewhere north of 100,000 to one.

Preppers can plan and prepare for cool, sexy incidents...or the boring ones. I know its boring to pack a sweater rather than a 12' Rambo knife...but I do it anyway.

Zombies, sharks, aliens, roving bands of disgruntled bagel chefs....No.

Car breakdown, ice on the sidewalk, cut finger...Yes.

Good point. But I pack for the boring stuff. I will need a snack bar long before I need my handy vampire repellant

Cars very rarely catch fire and blow up. That's movie magic.

But the catching on fire part isn't.

tidal waves (tsunamis) are another rare event, but limited geographically.
If you can't smell the ocean, you are likely safe

Don't forget fresh water - estimates on the local seiche from a 9.0M EQ has Lake Washington sloshing up to 18 feet back and forth, back and forth, wiping out shore line residents (and the cross-lake floating bridges). Its another low probability but high (proximate) risk event, which doesn't stop me from taking either bridge nearly every day.

I prep more for a house fire than I used to because I see more of them these days - not in terms of rescue hoods to play a hero, but planning and preparing to get my family out ASAP. Car accidents are actually more prevalent, both to experience one or several in one's lifetime but also to come upon them and possibly assist victims. I've done that 4 times now - mostly blunt trauma injuries and broken bones.

For the low probability but high risk events in life, I subscribe to the all hazards approach - if you're ready for a [EQ/zombie attack/attack of vampire vultures] you are better prepared for smaller and more common disasters. For me realistically that means floods, landslides, and power outages. Hardly sexy stuff, but its what we get most days around home. The CDC apparently agrees, they came out with an interesting Zombie Prep campaign that is intended tongue in cheek to get people better prepared for life's actual emergencies: http://www.cdc.gov/phpr/zombies.htm

"What first began as a tongue in cheek campaign to engage new audiences with preparedness messages has proven to be a very effective platform. We continue to reach and engage a wide variety of audiences on all hazards preparedness via Zombie Preparedness; and as our own director, Dr. Ali Khan, notes, 'If you are generally well equipped to deal with a zombie apocalypse you will be prepared for a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake, or terrorist attack.'"

You can download posters and novellas and even order t-shirts to celebrate the zombie prep campaign - driving home the point that somewhere among all this preparedness you might as well have a sense of humor, especially since humor can motivate people to receive learning about basic preparedness in a way that more serious information campaigns may not (its our old amygdalae messing with us again).

True of most tsunamis. But the Japan tsunami flooded areas locals considered "far" from the sea, or even up in the mountains. It was very odd to see people interviewed in some mountain village that had been flooded with seawater because the tsunami had forced itself up the rivers and streams to that elevation.

It will be interesting to see if we learn anything from the tsunami in Japan, I hope so - for instance, initial studies indicate that vertical evacuation strategies were on the whole successful both in buildings considered tsunami safe and those not certified as such: the ability to climb to the 3rd or 4th story was the difference between life and death for many. We also saw this in Indonesia too. Many multi-story buildings rode out both tsunamis. I don't know the exact differences in terrain between Tohoku and the PNW Pacific coast, but there is a fair amount of low lying coastline backed by cliffs averaging 30-60 feet: a tsumani coming on shore would innundate low lying areas, and rise up to the cliff lines, and overtop it in many places (river outlets, lower lying areas). Coastal populations can be sparse, and the number of multi-story buildings are few: so why not proactively invest in rennovating existing buildings for 2-4 level tsunami safe structures? For instance, when rennovating local schools, incorporate strong multi-story structures into them; actually encourage local hotels to builds 3-4 story structures; encourage location or relocation away from low lying areas and back up above coast cliffs (although not so close as to fall victim to erosion); create advantages for building (at least parts of structures) with concrete and rebar rather than with multi-story particle board and nails, and give surrounding residents a shot at surviving a tsunami event.

You need a plan for raising folks above the tsunami, not just away from it. Lots of people were lost in the Japanese tsunami attempting to drive away on roadways, which often didn't take direct lines away from the inundation path. Traffic was another issue - and during tsunami evacuation drills, evacuation by private vehicle was prohibited because of congestion, loss of power to traffic lights, and related issues. The PNW has some similar issues on most spots - a long local highway running N-S close to the shoreline, with roads running inland to the East every 10-20 miles, if that: and not always alot of elevation gain along these E-W roads. There are also various logging roads that climb enough to out run most any tsunami, but not everywhere. And some of the particular low lying areas along the coast are where the most folks actually live, and there is no where for them to run right now.

Those who don't learn from events are damned to repeat them.

unless you are situated in a coastal river valley or a deep coastal embayment. Our local tsunami surge model shows water reaching far up the Santa Clara and Ventura Rivers, well beyond the point where you can smell the ocean. Be sure you gain altitude when fleeing from the big T, not simply going inland.

Big stuff - Wildfires, storms, power outages...Good to plan for. Regular & predictable. Boring, but true