Rank order possible scenarios

Ok, first post but have been lurking for a long time. I was watching a show on Nat Geo the other night about "Preparers". Basically it documented how different family units have prepared for survival when society breaks down. Some scenarios were coronal mass ejections from the sun, hyper inflation, etc.

I live in the suburbs of a large metro area. here is my list of threats I believe I am most likely to encounter. Each one presents it's own challenges and ways to survive. I am trying to plan, prepare, and train with the family for each of the following.

1. Severe Weather/Fire
2. Economic Collapse (market crash)
3. Power grid failure
4. Flash Mob/Terrorism
5. Virus/Super bug

My question to the masses is... If you had to rank order your 5 most likely scenarios where there is a complete break down of society what would it be?

Welcome to ETS!

My preparations are aimed at short-term (less than three days), and medium-term (three weeks or less) emergencies. A complete break down of society over a long term is not something I'm planning for.

In my neighborhood, we've banded together and helped each other out during several weather emergencies and power outages. I fully expect for our little corner of society to continue operating in future short- and medium-term emergencies.

If I were you and planning for a complete breakdown of society, I'd be moving out of the suburbs into a rural area with water and the ability to grow your own food. I'd be investing in tools, stored food, medicine and survival skills. Keep in mind, though, that it's very hard to provide for your security when you don't have good neighbors.

I pretty much mirror chaosmagnet on my perception of threat...I live on the central Gulf Coast of Florida and hurricanes and tropical weather are my priority threat, followed by a weaponized biological or terrorist event....am prepared for about 60 days and working on additional dried stores which I would like to extend to 6 months... I have access to a pretty good protein supply with the Gulf of Mexico...have some good neighbors and friends (access to milling machine/wire welder/lathe and myriad of woodworking tools)... I shoot competatively, and have better than average skills...welcome to the forum

Severe Weather/Fire, Power grid failure and Virus/Super bug would cause resources to be brought in to deal with the issue. Lots of folks injured and dying causes those remaining/surviving to join together.

Economic Collapse on the other hand is a man-made issue that can drive the have's and have-not's to collide. Interesting times ahead.

If a Flash Mob/Terrorism resulted, it would be a result/symptom of the scenario and not a trigger.

Severe weather and power grid failure happen regularly where I live, especially around this time of the year. I prepare for it like I prepare lunch. Food, shelter, batteries, and communication.

The other stuff on your list is just far, far less likely, in my opinion. Fire, burglary, sickness, car accidents, and other regular life's troubles are probably more of a challenge. Complete breakdown of society is easy to prepare for. You just need a good cache of a variety of hard liquors and condoms, and you'll be all set. This works for coronal mass ejections, too. Try doubling the dosage. Liquor can also disinfect for the superbug invasion. (Seriously, am I wrong in thinking that it's just going to be really hard to prepare for the superbug? Unless we know what it is, it's going to be hard to do the things to protect oneself, except the relatively commonsensical stuff.)

I'm still working on the alien invasion scenario. Zombies, too.

Ah, forgot about the good old EMP. Part of my planning includes a faraday cage at home. I haven't thought about one at the office or in my car. May be a good idea to put a cb, and short wave radio at the office. I don't even know if it would work in a vehicle. How would you ground it?

I am asking about both "scenarios that result in the complete breakdown of society, those that are a result of said breakdown."

The reason I pose this question is two fold. One to bring out things I may have missed or forgotten (like the emp) so I can then prepare for the ones i feel actually have a chance in happening. The other is that there is so much crap out there about TEOTWAWKI and I would rather ponder some quasi reality about logical threats. I want to pick the 5 most likely and prep accordingly. I have already done a bunch, but I am far from feeling comfortable.

I doubt there will be a complete breakdown of society. If there is I feel it will most likely be confined to certain areas that are away from my daily routes. Not saying that chaos may spread to my area, but it would take a while for all the other prime targets to be looted before a band of marauders shows up in my neighborhood. I think most threats would be local but could quickly unfold into a national emergency. Enough rambling, any more thoughts?

True about the neighbors. I only have a few that trust enough to talk about this sort of thing with. As much as I would love to get out of the city it is going to have to wait until I retire.

It might be prudent to have at least 3-6 months supply of food (12 months is even better) put aside (if you don't already) before the beginning of the August as a little insurance against events where there is clear actionable intelligence as to the possibilities of what may occur as the US Federal Government runs out of cash.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-06-28-debt-limit-impasse-Congress-O bama-Social-Security_n.htm


Fiat currency may get a little unfashionable (requiring the trade/transactions in precious metals to be made illegal) as the austerity measures would truly get that 1930s depression feeling full on. Trading some paper for some chow, while you still can, makes sense even as a hedge against potential inflation as canned goods have a 3-5 year shelf life.

Last week at the supermarket the price of a can of spotted dick increaed by 20% (used to be £0.99 now £1.19)

Thanks for the input. I to shoot competitively also and like to think i can hold my own . I hunt and fish so those skills are already developed. I weld and fix junk at work. I practice survival skills in the back yard on the weekends with my kids. My daughter is 3 and is not as interested as my son. He is 5 yo. I try and make it fun. I try and make things into games to play such as making tinder bundles and lighting them with fire steels, edible gardening, water gathering, camping out (in the back yard) etc. One thing I am lacking is that I only have about 2 months of food on hand. I would like to get it to 6mo-1yr.

Trouble is trouble, and much of it is dependent upon the size of the problem.

1. Economic crisis (the stock market isn't a cause, it's just an indicator of faith in the economy) - this is going to be worldwide, nothing local about it.

2. Weather can affect the food supply, and so can crop diseases.

3. Earthquake with possible volcano eruption side issues.

4. Power grid failure - there have been signs of weaknesses, and lack of upgrading can cause problems.

5. Zombies -- we're not supposed to talk politics here.

Algo19: if you live in a large metro area, what will you be hunting and fishing for there? Pitbulls?

Sue

Sue, I will be supplementing my rations with protein. There are numerous neighborhood lakes within a 5 min. walk. these lakes have plenty of brim/crappie, catfish and bass. Also, there are plenty of birds, squirrels, chipmunks, and rabbits in my backyard and neighborhood. I live in the suburbs not a concrete jungle.

Like many others, I've always got short-term crisis and longer-term crisis in mind when prepping.

On the ST front:

1. Weather-related issues top the list. Heat, wind, rain and snow are the nasty trio, as much for the power-grid failures as for the damage they cause.

2. We live beside a major national highway and rail line. Chemical spills are a regular occurrence along these routes and the days until it's our turn are numbered.

3. An in-house emergency (fire or flood) is also a possibility so a quick evac is also a priority.

On the LT front:

1. The economy is on the top priority list. We live on a tight budget and prices are constantly going up. "Eat today at yesterday's prices and conserve as much as you can" is our motto around here and informs our purchases, habits and usage as much as anything else. (BTW - a year or two ago I would have put this as number 2 or even 3.)

2. We live in the danger zone of one nuclear power plant and I work right beside another that's dangerously close to home as well.

3. We are close to a rapidly changing flood plain so that's creeping up the list as well.

That's my top six!

Additionally, I also have those immediate, (hopefully) shorter term issues like a personal injury, car accident, vehicle breakdown, etc. These are much more likely scenarios. Very often prevention means success, but Murphy is always watching somewhere, so better to be prepared!

I am not sure you should prepare for a specific events. Where I live -- in the desert Southwest -- the weather here is mild in the winter and other weather hazards are essentially non-existent. Earthquake risk is low and flooding where I live is highly unlikely.

Surviving in the extreme heat of summer without tap water for a few days was the most threatening disaster I felt I might face (after the rarely discussed house fire). Then a record cold snap came in February and changed my perspective. Every power generating plant in the city was knocked out from the extreme cold. All of the electricity for a city of 600,000 was being provided by the local utility's fractional ownership of a nuclear power plant hundreds of miles away. The utility had to start rationing electricity with rolling blackouts.

This caused pipes to freeze and break in many houses that had been without power for only a few hours. The electric utility also inadvertently cut power to some water utility facilities and the city's water supply was compromised. If your house still had water, we were under a boil-order for 3+ days.

I assure you that nobody in this city had prepared for losing their electricity and water due to extreme cold.

Another local example is that earlier this month, the utility's supply lines from the same nuclear power plant were threatened by forest fires -- something that hadn't occurred to the utility's emergency planners since there are not any forests around here.

So to me, preparing for certain types of events is helpful to the extent it helps with general preparedness, but many natural events become disasters because something nobody has ever considered possible happens.

I doubt "plenty" will last more than a week or 2 when every hungry citizen with a gun decides it's open season in your town.

well, by that time, i will either have made it to my BOL or be dead, if all else fails, pitbulls may be on the menu

I would think the easiest way to store protein is to buy cans of high quality whey protein isolate or egg protein. 25 grams of protein per serving is close to half the daily requirement for adults. And while you're at it pick up some fish oil supplements, superfood/wheatgrass powder, chia seeds, flax seeds, multivitamins, etc. We're lucky high quality supplements are cheap enough to stock up on. That might not always be the case.

The worst -

No power. Think on it. Virtually everything runs on power, be it the grocery store (fridges, cash registers), the gas station (the pumps), your house... the list is endless. No power means no commerce, no transportation of goods on a major scale, no water, no heat, no lights, no a/c... need I go on?

Everything after this is gravy.

Edited...misread question...