Swine Flu - Round 2

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12075039

Massive spike in critical care Swine Influenza H1N1 cases . It is barely on the international news media radar but now has approximately 4 times more critical care cases than the swine flu outbreak during round 1 in the UK at its peak.

I suspect life is about to get a whole lot more difficult even with the current -20C temperatures this winter.

"The total number of cases is in line with what would be expected" - from the cited article

Apparently there has been a drop off in vaccination rates due to the lack of an autumn media campaign.

These issues go in cycles. The media will pick up a story, and every outlet will echo the same basic facts, or fictions. Then comes a great hair-on-fire cry and relization that 'something must be done'. A cry to 'do something', for government to 'do something', for the powers that be to 'do something'.

Then the second wave, a tidal surge of hair-pulling tirades analyzing why 'the people in charge' are not 'doing something. Followed by an extensive commentary about how they are doing 'the wrong thing', and then, just as it starts to fade away, there will be the third wave of 'I told-you-so' where what was done is shown to be useless and, anyway, government/the people in charge, can never get anything right.

And, in the end,inevitably ,each person's favorite people to blame will get blamed for the whole situation.

Simple fact is that H1N1, swine flu, bird flu, West Nile virus are all still out there. Get vaccinated early and often. No, vaccines are not perfect. But until something better comes along they are the best tool we have. Most county health departments will get you vaccinate against a whole host of diseases for cheap. Don't forget to keep your tetanus, and other standards, current.

And every flu season fills the hospitals with the very old,the very young, and the immune-compromised-the flu weakens, and the secondary bacterial infection moves in for the kill. can'r fix it with a knife, big pharma is spending it research dollars on anti-depressants and erectile dysfunction drugs rather than newer, better antibiotics, and supportive care can only prolong the demise...and to all a good night.

On the other hand-

May the peace and joy of the sesan remain with you throughout the year...

-Mikey

Dare I say it looks like a fairly mild flu season (so far), from the US CDC perspective - http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/. Last year they were tracking much more H1N1 activity, http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/weekly50.htm.

Vaccination against the seasonals is still the watchword.

I bought tamiflu last year. I don't regret it. Suppose I should buy some masks...

I have been vaccinated yearly for the past ten or so years. What is this "flu" you speak of?

I was reading some stats in one of the UK papers about the percentage of people vaccinated this season in the UK, with no public media campagn, versus last year when swine flu fear was high. I was surprised that the percentages were still quite close. They only declined by roughly 5% IIRC.

So, depending if you're a glass half empty or half full kind of person, you could spin that in a number of ways. I'm curious what the percentage was in the year before swine flu. Without more info, one might argue that vaccination rates have remained relatively stable inspite of a lack of a vaccination campaign this year.

Anyway, as is typical with most flu pandemics, this particular strain (i.e. the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" strain) will likely be the predominant strain for at least a few flu seasons, so it will remain with us for a while. I'm not particularly worried about it, unless it mutates along the way. However, despite what the naysayers may say that it's just another flu, the 2009 H1N1 is different from the typical seasonal flu strain in that it tends to strike younger folks much harder than is typical, and it does infect the deeper lung tissues more readily than is usual. And some older folks will still be somewhat immune compared to younger people due to past H1N1 exposure, so that's one silver lining to this strain.

Unfortunately, economics being what they are, vaccines are not big profit centers for anyone. The economics are all wrong. Spend money developing and testing a vaccine and you still only sell any one person only one dose. Medications that treat chronic conditions, that have to be taken every day, sometimes several times a day, make a lot more money for manufacturers, vendors, and everyone else.

Vaccines are also risky. Spend millions producing a supply and most of it may expire unused if the groundswell of vaccinations doesn't materialize. And, sometimes, in the same year, one batch expires unused and then the public suddenly gets alarmed late in the season. The public blames the evil pharma folks for not producing enough of the vaccine they now clamor for.

Also vaccines have developed their own hate groups and hate industry. There is a core of people making a living riding that hobby horse, raising discord and manufacturing issues. Few other medications have such a long history, over a century, of well entrenched and vocal vehemence and hate.

It's rather confusing to read the British press. The BBC article referenced in the OP says 15% of intensive care beds are filled with flu patients. But another UK paper was reporting that many hospitals' intensive care units are full or almost full with flu patients and quoting doctors who say they haven't seen anything like this in 20 years. ???

Time to watch "survivors" again.

The 15% is the total ICU spaces in the UK, when you think some hospitals have 10 bed units the 2 flu cases is 20% of that hospital total.

I was strongly "advised" by my GP to have the flu jab, I would do the same to other people. Especially if your in the vulnerable group or someone in your immediate family is.

France is now reporting officially a Flu epidemic (the UK is not far behind at 186 per 100,000) and the rate of ICU beds is now being reported at around 25% of total capacity (almost doubled within a week) in the London area within in the UK National Health Service.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12089488

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12291001/H1N1_UK_Health.html