This Isn't Going to End Well

I don't mean to sound flip when I say this -- because three lives are at risk or possibly already lost -- but this is almost a caricature of what not to do.

Temperatures have been ~105°-115°.

Search Continues for 'Lost Dutchman Mine' Treasure Hunters

What the article doesn't say is that two of the hikers have medical conditions, and one had to be rescued last year in the same area while hunting for the Lost Dutchman.

This could've been avoided so easily.

Can you say Darwinism?

Or Darwin Award. Not that I'm some kind of genius or something, but those guys were really really dumb about how they went about it. Hello? Phoenix does have a fall just like the rest of the country. Hello?

HJ

Either they fell out on the trail or they caught a ride into Las Vegas and are presently stinking drunk and gambling away their retirement accounts. Either way they are dead. If the buzzards don't get them their wives will.

Many people have died looking for that mine in the last 150+ years. I just don't understand why so many of them go looking for it in summer. With the known history of the place, you would think they would be more careful, and make better plans. Renting a sat phone and taking lots of water would be the minimum.

Sue

Or maybe getting rescued before would cause you to think the second time. "Communications? Nah. I won't need that."
"Food? Water? Excess baggage."
"A sharp guy like me can just figure it out as I go..."

Famous last words.

HJ

I'm real big on giving people the benefit of the doubt, as I'm sure you all realize from some of my other posts.

But I have no sympathy for this guy. He needed rescue before, and he even had someone urging him to take at least a minimum of supplies. If he didn't learn anything from that, then so be it.

This is Evolution in Action.

I'm usually a little reticient to criticize people when things go wrong in the outdoors. I wasn't there, and who knows what the situation was on the ground. What a particular individual did may have seemed reasonable at the time based on what he knew. However, in this case, this guy seems like the dumbest, most clueless guy I've ever heard of.

You've heard of the Donner party? This was the Dumber party.

HJ

I hope this was a typo, and she meant they'd die in the "heat". Dieing in a port-a-potty on a search and rescue mission would suck.

I have been in this part of Southern Arizona. This not a place to be when things go wrong. While the heat does not approach the levels of the desert outside of Phoenix (lower elevation), it is still blistering. The good thing is (I guess) the possiblity they were taken out by "interlopers" is very slim due to the proximity of Fort Huachuca. These guys remind me of the dopes in northern Maine that have gotten lost and rescused eight times in the Allagash. The same thing has happened in Alaska numerous times. Some people never learn until their light slowly dims out of existence. I hope these guys in Arizona are not extinguished; but the odds are slim. Heat, rattlesnakes, and very rugged terrain (caves) do not add up to a good outcome.

I live single digit miles from the Superstitions. I can see them from my house. I train out there swimming in Canyon Lake, cycling out to the end of the pavement past Tortilla Flats, running throughout the park area and of course hiking many of the amazing trails.

They have not stated which trail head they found the car. Which is not usual, so its probably a small one. They have showed copter video of the SAR/ police HQ at the trail head but I don't recognize it.

There is zero cell phone coverage out there. zero. In fact there is not even payphones as far as I know. I have had to ask the marina to use their office phone when I needed it.

it is effing hot this week. +111 degrees all week and the dew point is over 55* which is a indicator of monsoon season. Don't ask me more on dew point, its not humidity, but its somehow relevant.

The SAR unit here is top notch. They have never NOT found their target, even after searching for many weeks.

Well, I hope those three guys are OK, but things sure don't sound good.

The really sucky thing is that the SAR guys have to go out after these numb skulls. I don't care how well conditioned or prepared you are, 110+ F weather (43+ C) is deadly. Honestly, it makes me angry. If these guys live, these are the type of guys that I think should be made to pay for their rescue.

HJ

Wanna hear a stupid joke?

So, a white guy, a black guy, and a Mexican go into the Superstition Mountains desert wilderness in summer, with no phone, food, or WATER; looking for the Lost Dutchman's gold...

STUPID JOKE!!!

MoBOB,

The Superstition Mountains are east of Phoenix. No where near Ft. Huachuca.

Dewpoint and Humidity is 100% related - the "dewpoint" is the point where if you lowered the temperature of the air, dew would form - aka 100% humidity

If you know the temperature and the dewpoint, and want to obtain relative humidity, the formulas are as follows:

Convert BOTH temps to degs C - inn your case

111F = 44C (Tc - air temp)
55F = 13C (Tdc - dewpoint temp in C)

The next set of formulas assumes a standard atmospheric pressure. These formulas will calculate saturation vapor pressure(Es) and actual vapor pressure(E) in millibars.

(5) Es=6.11*10.0**(7.5*Tc/(237.7+Tc))

(6) E=6.11*10.0**(7.5*Tdc/(237.7+Tdc))

Once you have the saturation vapor pressure and the actual vapor pressure, relative humidity can be computed by dividing the actual vapor pressure by the saturation vapor pressure and then multiplying by 100 to convert the quantity to a percent.

(7) Relative Humidity(RH) in percent =(E/Es)*100

I use my own method to calculate relative humidity.

1. Take one test vessel(frosty mug) from the freezer
2. pour in 12 oz of the chilled test fluid, preferably Leinenkugels Honey Weiss
3. observe the frosty coating on the test vessel while slowly extracting the test fluid orally

If it melts before the third sip, the humidity is 85%
If it melts before the second sip, the humidity is 95%

Warning: this calculation can be compromised by the 'thirstyness factor'

If the test fluid is gulped, the test results are invalid and steps 1 through 3 must be repeated.

We do it with a pint o'Guiness.If your frothy moustache is wet before your next Gulp,It is Humid!If your frothy moustache is dry,or you don't sport a frothy moustache,You are Definitely NOT Irish!lol!

My guess would be that they found the Lost Dutchman himself and there is no mine out there. In all the decades of poeple looking for the Lost Dutchman's Mine, no one has ever found a thing.

The expert opinion is the Old Jacob(the Dutchman)would sneak into the Vulture Mine, NW of Phoenix and steal gold then circle around and re-enter the Phoenix area from the east and tell tales of riches in the Superstitions.

It is easy for some to dream of riches. It would have been wiser to buy a few lottery tickets and sit around the pool waiting to win than to enter the Superstitions on foot this time of the year.

Looks like they've called off the search.

HJ

They pulled off all the true volunteers and police but the backbone of the Superstition SAR is a group of guys who really won't quit. They'll work in the mornings when its cooler and it will be only a few people instead of 100's but these guys are really serious about their commitment to safety out there.

There has to be a point where enough is enough.

I wouldn't want to see any of the SAR guys put into danger because these three yahoos decided they were going to find what is at best a "mythical" mine.

If this was three kids who had wandered off, sure. Or three elderly people lost while driving. But at some point you have to be held responsible for your own actions, as stupid as they may be. If that means you are allowed to die due to the actions you placed yourself in, so be it.

I applaud the efforts of the SAR people, but again, don't want to see them hurt because of the preventable actions of others.

The only way they might still be alive is if they stashed a supply of water on one of their previous trips. But how likely is that?

Goldhunter: 0
Superstitions: hundreds

But it won't stop.

Sue

Well there are some springs in the Superstitions that usually run year 'round. A lost person would be lucky to stumble onto a spring and perhaps smart to sit at the water and stay in the shade awaiting rescue.

Reality is there is very little chance that they are alive after this long. It has been well over 100 everyday out there and will be for another 2 months. Not very hospitable to novices without essentials.

I still give fair odds that the guys caught a ride to a casino and have been dead drunk and knee deep in hookers spending their kids inheritance. That in a few days they will come stumbling out of the desert, suspiciously well fed and watered, and tell some miraculous tale of being led in a strange mist to a tiny hidden spring by the ghost of an indian, or an alien abduction.

That, or they realize that it has been too long and they quietly, grow beards and relocate under an assumed name into a quiet mountain town where people don't ask to many questions.

Or some hiker finds a set of bones in a year or two.

One gets hurt, one stays with him while the third goes for help. Mr Help gets lost and the other two die waiting. They'll find them, but not together and one will have been injured. (Just another possible scenario.)

Off the top of my head, not even close to enough water for a day and no comms. A bad Plan A with no Plan B.

I'll take some of that action.

If he (the "mastermind" in charge) won't even take water or a phone (regardless of whether it'll get a signal), how much do you think he really has set aside for the kids to inherit?

For me, what really gives rise to incredulity ... fact that apparent 'leader' of the group had to be rescued last year while attempting much the same excursion.

In and of itself, not inexcusable. Stuff happens. But for most folks -- prep'ers or not -- that would constitute a lasting 'life lesson.' Sadly, not in this case.

But I'm not about to entirely dismiss Art-in-FL's casino-scenario. No less believable than venturing into AZ desert sans H2O.

Yes, the engineered disappearance occurred to me, too.

It almost sounded 'too stupid', even for the careless.

Meriwerth is 67, probably collecting SS. I wonder if the 'send to' address changes?

Sue

Dewpoint is "absolute" humidity, and it's expressed in degrees. I like it because it's much more closely related to comfort level than relative humidity. We've always heard about relative humidity because it's easier to measure.

If the dewpoint is below 50ºF, it's "dry" out and very comfortable.
Dewpoint from 50-60 is starting to get muggy, but not too bad.
60-70 is really muggy.
70 and above is what I think of as "Floridian".

I've been following this a bit. Maricopa County SAR and Superstition SAR are still out there looking albeit in a somewhat scaled back mode. The Supers are people eaters. A lot of people have gone out there and were missing for years before any trace was found. I wish for the families resolution, one way or the other. The not knowing, speaking from personal experience, is he**ish.

HJ

Interesting timing on the search for the LD. When I lived in Arizona, I often hiked and climbed in the Supes. They are marvelous in the winter, with water everywhere, with very pleasant temperatures.

The summer, of course, is vastly different......

I am sure the searchers are checking out the possibility that the whole thing is a decoy and that the "victims" are miles away. It has happened before.