Here we go again; Hurricane IKE

Hurricane Ike Strengthens to Category 3 Storm
Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Hurricane Ike was upgraded to a category 3 storm by the National Hurricane Center as the storm moves west across the Atlantic.

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, issued Wednesday evening, put Ike's wind speed at near 115 mph, with higher gusts.
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IKE

Projected Storm Track

Look out South Florida

I sure feel sorry for the people of Haiti, they are getting hit with a hurricane a week three weeks running. That has got to hurt. I hope those folks are prepared.

Check out:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

The "Atlantic Basin" "Early-cycle intensity guidance" ( frame 2 right now ), shows a few models think it could get to CAT 4, and one model says CAT 5 ( about 150 knots/ 172mph ) about 72 hours (3 days) from "now" ( now being 8pm EST/0000 UTC ). Puts it about 8pm on Saturday, which according to the official track, puts it east of the Bahamas. The chart has fluctuated, because earlier today, it said 36 hours out.

Ike is, as of 2330 local news, a category 4 hurricane.

That, in and of itself, doesn't scare me even though any strong storm can be very bad. What gets my attention is that there are three storms on the screen. Any hurricanes is a hell of a lot bigger than I am. That's okay because I'm scrappy. But when they start to outnumber me three to one it starts to worry me.

I guess worse comes to pass I take the long length of half-inch line I keep handy and lash myself to the lee side of the big oak.

We had a couple of quiet hurricane seasons. Looks like this one might swing the other way.

"...lash myself to the lee side of the big oak..."

I really hope that you don't become a pancake if that mighty oak goes down.

I don't know how you guys do it. We are gonna be sailing, in a great big cruise ship, from the north coast of Venzuela to Miami on 'bout 10Oct, and we are already worrying about what kind of TS/hurricane might be in the area then. You guys to it a bunch of times, every year.

(and, lucky us, our boat is having problems with its "azipod," an electric egg beater type gizmo that replaces a normal screw and rudder, causing it to have to run at less than top speed. Oh joy. Gonna cost us our trip under the Golden Gate too, that port has been cancelled)...

OBG - EEEK! Not a good time to cruise those waters! I've been in the start/mid of August and it can be nasty then too.

Stay safe.

-Todd

My (already paid) mid-September cruise is a no go! On the other hand it sure looks like I (and Florida) will have greater worries and possible loss due to Ike. I want to rename it "Yikes". Time to recheck our plan.

Looks like I am heading back to Orlando for a couple weeks in between Ike and Josephine. If the tail end of the track I saw for Ike last night holds true, and Ike stays at Cat 4 or goes to Cat 5, I guess I will be back in time to pick up the pieces of my home there. I can only hope Josephine follows a different track and doesn't come in right behind Ike. I suspect the African coast will continue to spew these nasties off at us until late October.

Ugh.

May you, your family, and your home survive safely the coming hurricanes.
Stu

I think you got that right.

The Tropic of Cancer off Africa is starting to remind me of an aircraft carrier. One determined to do its worse to the Southeast US. They are launching storm as fast as they can. I see two storms coming at us. One on-deck with the wings being unfolded. And it looks like hints of another coming up on the elevator.

I guess this is payback for the quiet years. Feast or famine is a hell of a way to do business.

Y'know, it ain't so much where I am living, though I prefer places with adequate opportunity for big game and varmint hunting and 4 distinct seasons, it is this temporary crud that I've been dealing with for the past few years that has me down. As long as I have to keep living in someone else's home (renting that is), I am prevented from being able to prepare in a manner I would prefer. That leaves me feeling constantly vulnerable. Part of the reason for coming back to Denver or maybe back to Washington is that this move will be the last. Wherever destiny may want to send my sorry hide from now on for this career, it will have to be TDY from now on, for I won't pack up and move again once I build my fortress.

Feeling vulnerable, within certain bounds, is okay. In my experience about the time I think I have all my duckies in line and all angles covered something comes up which I didn't didn't foresee. Often something I can't change or do anything about. This has happened so many times that it worries me when I am not feeling at least a little vulnerable. When I'm feeling satisfied I know I'm overlooking something.

As much as a living in an invulnerable fortress is attractive I have found that light, mobile and adaptable is cheaper, more immediately available and, often, more practical.

That doesn't keep me from dreaming about having a nearly invulnerable, bermed and steel reinforced concrete, 'Lair of Evil and Darkness' of my very own but it will likely remain just a dream.

So far I get by with moderately hardening my residence, luck, staying mobile, and keeping an option open of lashing myself to a big oak if all else fails.

Yeah, that seems to be the more likely MO. Still, I would like to try it the other way for a bit, just to see how it does.

I guess we'll see what fortune the next couple years brings for us.