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#276514 - 09/02/15 09:01 PM Maximums of Maximums
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
The Atlantic has just posted an interesting new article online: The Mothers of All Disasters.

Quote:
The biggest disasters seem so far out of the range of the normal possibilities of daily life that it’s nearly impossible to even envision the scale of the destruction and upheaval, even for people who have survived one. Huge hurricanes could all but wash major cities away. Earthquakes on the West Coast and even in the center of the country could knock out power for months, make running water a distant memory, and deprive residents of the roofs over their heads. A deadly epidemic, such as the U.S. hasn’t seen in 97 years, could take the lives of tens of thousands. A terrorist could unleash an improvised nuclear device in a major city, killing thousands—an event without historical precedent.

The people who try to keep the nation ready for these doomsday scenarios call them the Maximums of Maximums, or the MOMs. You might call them the mothers of all disasters. The term comes from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and for the feds, it generally includes a small universe of possibilities: a major hurricane, a major earthquake, or an improvised nuclear device.
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#276517 - 09/02/15 10:22 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
On an individual, or family level, it comes down to cost effectiveness. It is insanely simple to prepare for fairly routine mishaps and become self-sufficient for 72 hours. It isn't even that difficult to become OK for seven days or so. People who contemplate a year or so of independence are going to be investing significant resources in their preps. Draw the line wherever you desire.

For me, a big time disaster essentially means I get to go on an impromptu camping trip, using all the stuff I have accumulated over a lifetime spent in the outdoors one way or another.

Analyze the hazards pertinent to your locale (I need to prep for earthquakes, but not tornadoes or hurricanes), and allot your resources accordingly.

Getting government entities to address disaster preparedness rationally is a whole different problem, but one wonders if some percentage of our mammoth defense budget could not be shifted toward disasters and the repair/upgrading of infrastructure...
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#276525 - 09/03/15 04:02 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: AKSAR]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
The problem with MoMs or "worst case scenarios" is that they seldom are. Things can get much worse then we imagine or plan for -- See Katrina or Fuskushima. A better term might be 'Bad Case Scenario.'


Edited by TeacherRO (09/04/15 08:34 PM)

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#276528 - 09/03/15 08:06 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: hikermor]
Mark_R Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 863
Loc: Southern California
Originally Posted By: hikermor
On an individual, or family level, it comes down to cost effectiveness. It is insanely simple to prepare for fairly routine mishaps and become self-sufficient for 72 hours. It isn't even that difficult to become OK for seven days or so. People who contemplate a year or so of independence are going to be investing significant resources in their preps. Draw the line wherever you desire.


Pretty much. The bulk of the routine stuff (computer crashes, flat tires, power outrages, etc.) are one-and-done purchases just requiring routine maintenance. As a single purchase, it's daunting, but spread out over the years, it's surprisingly affordable. I've found the limiting factor for preparedness to be the cost of replacing short shelf life supplies, like food which goes bad after a year or so.


Edited by Mark_R (09/03/15 08:17 PM)
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#276530 - 09/03/15 08:45 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: TeacherRO]
Tom_L Offline
Addict

Registered: 03/19/07
Posts: 690
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
The problem with MoMs or "worst case scenario is that they seldom are. Things can get much worse then we imagine or plan for -- See Katrina or Fuskushima. A better term might be 'Bad Case Scenario.'


True enough. Katrina and Fukushima were pretty bad but still far from a worst case scenario like all-out nuclear war, global natural disaster or deadly epidemic. Not saying that one should live in constant fear of a TEOTWAWKI scenario but recent experience suggests that even the most prosperous countries on Earth have serious issues dealing with large-scale emergencies.

I don't even want to know what might happen in an actual "MoM" situation. But I daresay it would be way worse than Katrina, Fukushima or Chernobyl - and way beyond what we could fix quickly with our existing resources and emergency preparedness strategies.

Curiously enough, I don't think that most developed Western countries are equipped to deal with that sort of scenario. I can't quite resists the impression that the overall level of emergency preparedness was a lot higher during the Cold War.

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#276534 - 09/03/15 10:11 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: Tom_L]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: Tom_L
I can't quite resists the impression that the overall level of emergency preparedness was a lot higher during the Cold War.


Good point. Having been around at that time, we had the Civil Defence Agency, duck and cover, a thriving industry building fallout shelters, and the like - but all for one specific type of disaster - one which we approached all too closely on occasion. But we were still woefully unprepared for the possibility of an asteroid impact - a Chicxulub event like that that ended the reign of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, according to some who have studied the impact, generating a five kilometers high. That would cause a very bad day for most of us.

At some point, the possible really, really bad events that could occur are so horrific and so rare that it just isn't worth concern.

Incidentally, in checking around on asteroid impacts, I found that one predicted for this September, is considered to be meritless by NASA. I certainly hope so. I have big plans for late September and I just don't have time for a MOM....
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#276535 - 09/03/15 10:48 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: Mark_R]
Alex Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/01/07
Posts: 1034
Loc: -
Originally Posted By: Mark_R
it's surprisingly affordable. I've found the limiting factor for preparedness to be the cost of replacing short shelf life supplies, like food which goes bad after a year or so.

Ditto that. My only concern is water supply in CA (I doubt I could ever store so much water). Long shelf life food preps does not seem neither hard to do, nor expensive, especially if you are into cannery and dehydrating science.

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#276536 - 09/03/15 11:05 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: AKSAR]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
On the personal level, as already mentioned, you have to plan for what you can't plan for. Second one I always recommend, in the unlikely event someone actually asks me for advice, it would be to prepare for a day without electricity. That gets people thinking.

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#276538 - 09/03/15 11:40 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: AKSAR]
LesSnyder Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1680
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
C-Span or one of the PBS stations had an interview with Craig Fugate, FEMA Administrator, on the 10th anniversary of Katrina, and asked him of his "worst case" scenarios... good insight as to how FEMA has changed post Katrina, and what it is charged with doing by Congress

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#276552 - 09/04/15 07:46 PM Re: Maximums of Maximums [Re: AKSAR]
Mark_F Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/24/09
Posts: 714
Loc: Kentucky
Sometimes, events occur almost simultaneously, or one event causes the other, compounding a bad situation. Far from a MOM event, but this past winter, events in our area combined forces to create disaster events that caught local emergency services off guard. The local forecast at that time can be found here

This event was on the tail end of one of the worst winters our area has experienced in quite some time. The snow falls may seem small, but many counties were running low or completely out of salt to treat roads due to heavy snows in previous months. The flooding was a major concern, as people were having to evacuate from their homes as the waters rose and the snow fell, and emergency services had both events to contend with.

Keep in mind also, this was AFTER we received heavy snow fall in february, nearly 2 foot. While for some folks this would be just like any other winter, for us it was nearly catastrophic. We're just not used to getting that much snow at once. The problems from this snow event were compounded by the widespread water outages it caused, not to mention the power outages.

Needless to say, emergency services were pushed to their limits. It wasn't that they weren't prepared to handle the events, they just weren't prepared to handle the compounded effects of multiple events occurring at once. A positive that came out of this is that local officials are revisiting and reevaluating their emergency and disaster scenarios.
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