Eons ago Nighthiker posted a link for estimating risk -- how likely is an event to happen, and how much inconvenience would it pose, etc. Does anyone still have it?

I think the keywords are "assessing risk," but I'm not still quite finding it. I'm coming close:

https://www.zombiehunters.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=50761

What kind of risk assessments? and what kind of risks?

There are often risk assessments made by local emergency managers, generally they can be found publicly.

Not sure if this is exactly what you are looking for, but to determine the level of risk you multiply the chance of occurrence by the consequence of the risk. For example, when planning Scouting events, I use the following:

Chance of Occurrence:

• 0: Improbably (will not occur)
• 1: Remote (unlikely to occur)
• 2: Occasional (possible to occur)
• 3: Probable (might occur)
• 4: Frequent (very likely to occur)

Consequence:

• 0: No harm
• 1: Slight injury (delay in resuming activity)
• 2: Injury requiring first aid (out for day)
• 3: Serious Injury requiring EMS
• 4: Life-threatening Injury

Risk Level (Chance of Occurrence x Consequence):

• 0-2: Minimal
• 3-5: Low
• 6-8: Moderate
• 9-16: High

So to perform a risk assessment for an outing, I fill out a matrix listing the activities and their potential hazards and then assign the appropriate chance of occurrence, consequence and risk level as well as listing any actions we can take to minimize the risk. The higher the level of risk, the more you need to look at ways to prepare for and mitigate that risk. For example, while a wild animal attack may have a grave consequence (4) it has a low probability (1) which makes it a low risk. Also, in my case, if I have one or more activities with a moderate level of risk it indicates I need to do an additional layer of paperwork and parental notification. If I have one or more activities that have a high level of risk I need to re-evaluate.

That said, I've used similar approaches to work projects too, to evaluate the risks involved that could jeopardize delivery or cost and the basic principle is the same; multiply the chance of occurrence by the consequence.

If you are talking wider-scale disasters, I'd use the same approach. It's too easy to focus on the consequence alone, but taking the probability into account you get a better picture of what you should really be looking at.

I would like to add a caveat to the matrix style of assessment.

The methodology fails with high consequence hazards in low likelihood occurrence areas

If a risk is seen as life threatening it should always be graded as high (16 in the example above) if it can happen, whatever the chance of occurrence.

I cannot countenance risk assessing something that can kill without putting into place any and all accommodations that will reduce that risk level.

Life threatening scenarios require very expert assessment by competent people.

(Here starts the discussion of 'competent' on this forum)

In the UK one definition often used is:

"To be competent an organisation or individual must have:
Sufficient knowledge of the tasks to be undertaken and the risks involved.
The experience and ability to carry out their duties in relation to the project, to recognise their limitations and take appropriate action to prevent harm to those carrying out construction work, or those affected by the work".

Since we are dealing with people it's necessary to remember that we often create our own luck or viewed differently, we skew the odds. Something highly dangerous may have an extremely low probability of happening under "normal" circumstances, and then a human gets involved and moves the probability to 100%. The term adrenaline junkie comes to mind.

Non-experts are constantly called upon to assess life-threatening situations. Some are very common and foreseeable (should I have a fourth spiked eggnog before I drive home?), some less common (will I get robbed in broad daylight in the mall parking lot?) some are very uncommon (will an airplane crash into my house?).

There are, of course, varying levels of expertise that people may have while assessing these situations. It certainly would be nice to have an expert make these assessments, but most of the time that's not feasible.

It behooves us to get better at threat assessment. Bruce Schneier's book Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly about Security in an Uncertain World was written for my industry but is the best treatment of how bad humans are at threat assessment that I've yet read.

The matrix is a useful tool, but it is just a beginning. Where it fails is how it is put to use and interpreted. The rare but catastrophic event must be prepared for, in planning, training and equipment. Just because it ranks low in probability does not mean you can dismiss it. A good method for including it in planning is to use the "PACE" acronym for planning: Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency.

Primary: Your primary plan for how you will accomplish your goal, safely.

Alternate: An adjustment to your plan that still allows you to accomplish your primary goals, just in a deferent way.

Contingency: Something goes wrong and requires you to change your goal. Maybe an injury, a shortage of necessary equipment or supplies, or a natural weather event that makes the original goal impossible.

Emergency: Your are in survival mode and trying to get out alive.

Your equipment and supplies must cover all four. Your survival kit is usually for the "Emergency" situation. You must address these four areas while doing your planning, but after doing your risk assessment.

Thanks, everyone! But does anyone know the link I'm talking about? I remember it's nicely written up, and I want to share it with someone. As I recall, Nighthiker wrote up a document and put it up somewhere. He then posted a link to it on our forum. But I can't find it!

I thought it's somewhere on this site, but it doesn't seem to be there --

http://www.alpharubicon.com/prepinfo/prepinfo.htm

Bingley, try * WHAT SHOULD I BE PREPARING FOR?*. I didn't use the AlphaRubicon search engine.