It is also true that at some point this strain may mutate into a human-human virus. It has appearantly done so on a limited scale. If it changes vectors into an airborne pathogen at this point, then things change. 1918 may look like a small disturbance when you consider that the population scale is quite a bit different today and that the most populous nations have terrible records of sanitation, disposal, and informed/schooled people.

Of course there's the hype. Of course the main stream media wants us to feal the fear, and perpetuate PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER.'s mass panic. None of this changes the fact that this (or something very like it) is far overdue. Given global travel and already narrowly missed containment breaches (ever read The Hot Zone ?) the odds of this happening are exponentially higher than they have been in the past century.

Okay, that being said, your observations are great... you present the facts clearly and without prejudice. And I agree that there's nothing to really panic about. But I will say this... all the talk about the bird flu actually got me coming to this site and thinking about being prepared for civil disorder in general. So the combination of hype over Katrina and the Bird Flu may lead some more people here and that can't be a bad thing.

Even my brother who's notoriously underwhelmed by such hyperbole has begun to think about stocking up when his power was cut off and winter heating oil issues came up.

Stay educated about the disease. Take precaution by avoiding contact with birds, wash your hands before preparing food, eating or touching face, after shaking hands, opening public doors, etc. Stay away from droppings, feathers, etc.!?!

Most of the human deaths were in people who dealt with the infected birds, and most of the infected birds were in high-density groups, like factory farms.

The flyway thing doesn't seem to be "flying". The scientists expected the bird flu to migrate along the flyways, and it really hasn't. There have been some wild birds found with it, but not all that many, considering. Also, I read where there hadn't been a single case of this particular type of flu found in any domestic, true free-ranged flock (as opposed to pseudo-free-range high-density situations), even when they were near infected flocks.

They are also suspecting that many people have gotten mild cases of this flu, but they are only testing the serious ones and the dead victims for it, which would tend to throw the calculations way off.

Prepare, but don't panic.

Sue

Interesting .....that the gov't is coming out with a 50% possible death rate if the "flue" hits our country.... sounds like "BIG TIME CYA" ... type statement if I ever heard one!

That's based on the reports from doctors- no one knows how many people suffer from cough, fatigue, headache, fever and malaise and don't bother to talk to a doctor.

That helpful bit isn't from me. That's from my mother, the medical librarian. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I agree.

I'm much more worried about the drunk drivers in my area than bird flu or al-Qaida (for that matter).

I've actually been thinking of buying a case of MREs to supplement the canned goods and water I've stored so far . . . have you ever done business with these guys?

I buy mine from Long Life Foods
Nice variety. Costs are pretty high initially. I buy a case every 3 months. In 2 years you'll have quite a bit of food.