Related. What the USA may do in the next war with NK.

In a secret underground base, Command Post Tango, the combined headquarters of the U.S.-South Korean command, is abuzz with activity. North Korean artillery has pummeled sites around Seoul, leaving thousands of South Korean and American civilians and service members dead. A toxic combination of North Korean provocations and U.S. escalation has prompted the North to launch a last-ditch effort to seize the whole peninsula.

Put fears of full-blown nuclear war aside for a moment. We’ve never been closer to a conventional North Korean attack on South Korea, and I can attest that the U.S. military knows how devastating the consequences would be. We can expect a massive humanitarian crisis, enormous loss of life, and economic disaster. There’s almost no doubt that the North would lose – but in going down Pyongyang could take much of the Korean Peninsula with it.

We've never been closer to a North Korean attack on South Korea: Here's what could happen

I also think that the leader of N. Korea is the type of personality who would 'go for it' - attempt a surprise attack on S. Korea, Japan and Guam -if his back was to the wall. If they mount a surprise attack with chemical weapons (artillery shells), info sabotage (hacking), and possibly some nuclear weapons - I think that the damage and confusion on the Korean peninsula would be enormous.

But the author of the article (link posted above) has a very good point. N. Korea has no way to 'follow up' a surprise attack by re-supplying their own Army divisions when they cross the DMZ ... they can't even feed their own army inside their own country. Any surprise attack on S. Korea would fizzle extremely quickly. And then N. Korea would be wiped out.

But just the same ... the damage from chemical and nuclear contamination would be tremendous. Hope it never comes to this.

Their weapons are used primarily for extortion, which has worked well for them in the past. They over estimate their own influence, because we have always paid them off in the past, and underestimate the power of South Korea, Japan and the U.S.

The Demilitarized zone has protected the north more than the south for the last 2 or 3 decades. The South Korean Army is much better than that of the North.

North Korea is more like a mosquito. It can bite a little, but it is easier to squash than most people think.

Montanero, certainly pertinent comments. My experience with 'Frozen Chosen' dates from 1961. Serving in the 1st Cav, I made one trip to Panmunjom.

I remember South Korean soldiers as being basically in better shape than most of the US troops, who were comparatively plump and soft.

This post is tangential to the debate at hand, and yet may be remarkably relevant. It's hard to think of a better place for it.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017...dies-at-age-77/



It is hard to imagine, but this Soviet colonel's quiet courage and common sense is, quite possibly, the reason we have the luxury of having this discussion today. Naturally, he was censured and lived in poverty for his actions. The world recently learned that he passed away this year.

Thank you, Stanislav Petrov. The world hasn't improved much, and people not at all, but I hope the world we try to build will be a worthy legacy for you.

agree. he was one of the lifesavers who stopped the Cold War from going into a real Hot War. it took some cool judgment and a lot of common sense - he saved the world.

One thing not discussed here ... WHAT exactly would the USA do to broadcast a warning (to its own citizens), if there was an inbound missile coming at the mainland (CONUS)? If you look at Japan, they have activated sirens and an emergency warning system for their population, each time the N. Koreans have launched a missile over their homeland. It's a pretty good idea.

But it's not clear at all - how the USA would advise its own citizens about an inbound missile threat. No-one has practiced the drills. It's possible that the country would use the standard emergency-warning system over public radio. That system still exists and is tested regularly. But what exactly would a real warning message say? Since the system has never been activated in an "air defense mode", it's not clear that the public would believe or respond to a real warning ... if a REAL-TIME LIVE warning message came through.

I am surprised that the mayors of large cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have not clarified this. The inertia in the system is amazing. "It can't happen here."

We no longer have a real Civil Defense System in this country. Hawaii is now setting the example of reactivating the old fallout shelters in their state. The other states and territories need to do the same, IMO.

I agree Wildman. And just so you don't feel lonely ... I am borrowing your emergency preparation system and I am going to "NorthKorea-Con-1". Same thing that you did before Hurricane Harvey, but as a prep for possible war on the Korean Peninsula. I am on the West Coast of the USA, so we are a potential target zone for missiles. It's an "unknown" what N. Korea can really do to the mainland USA (or the Pacific Ocean), but I figure that some simple, standard precautions are sensible. So I am backing up my food pantry, getting more drinking water in the house (tap water will do), getting an emergency radio, will get some spare batteries, might get a solar panel for re-charging my phone.

There is no way to predict the future. But the situation on the Korean Peninsula is "going downhill" fast ... and it sure looks like the N. Korean gov't is not going to change direction.

Sorry but I just accidentally deleted half of my DefCon Checklist, but here is me ThreatCon Checklist:

ThreatCon Checklist
Updated 02Sep2017



5=definite threat possibility with no specific intel.
4=event could occur/start in 3 months - no specific intel.
3=event could occur/start in 1 month – no specific intel
2=event may occur/start in 2 weeks - specific intel (includes “special” dates)
1=event may or is occurring/specific intel or news of an incident


ThreatCon 5: Upon setting ThreatCon 5:
HSD (green) Low
MARSEC 1
DefCon 5
1) Have a “Family Plan” of what to do and where and how to meet in the event of an incident. Insure all family members are thoroughly briefed.
2) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 72 hours (3 days) sustenance/maintenance.
3) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
4)

ThreatCon 4: Upon setting ThreatCon 4:
HSD (blue) Guarded
MARSEC 1
DefCon 4
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 144 hours (6 days) sustenance/maintenance.
2) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
3)

ThreatCon 3: Upon setting ThreatCon 3: (This is the NORMAL level in the USA)
HSD (yellow) Elevated
MARSEC 1
DefCon 3
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 3 months sustenance/maintenance.
2) Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
3) Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the Half Full mark.
4) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.
5) Lock and load weapons, safety engaged. Keep a firearm within easy reach, ready for immediate use.

ThreatCon 2: Upon setting ThreatCon 2:
HSD (orange) High
MARSEC 2
DefCon 2
1) Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 6 – 12 months sustenance/maintenance.
2) Keep Family Members close to home. Know everybody’s whereabouts.
3) Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the ¾ full level.
4) Top off stored gasoline (stabilized) cans and propane tanks.
5) Insure that proper supplies are on hand for special needs persons and for the pets.
6) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.
7) Arm yourself, locked and loaded, safety engaged. Be ready to use your weapon without delay.

ThreatCon 1: Upon setting ThreatCon 1:
HSD (red) Severe
MARSEC 3
DefCon 1
1) Consume foods in the freezer and refrigerator first.
2) Have all Family Members return or stay at home.
3) Top off vehicle fuel tanks, if it can be safely done.
4) Monitor the news/internet to determine the threat and subsequent events that must be guarded against.
5) Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are. Attempt to make agreements for mutual aid and defense.
6) Stay armed 24/7. Be ready to use deadly force.

ThreatCon 1CBR: (Chemical, Biological, Radiological)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
4) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
5) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
6) Get the Kearney Fallout Meter (KFM) online ASAP and begin monitoring.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.
8)

ThreatCon 1J: (Jihadists)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) Arm those that are capable and establish a watch of the property perimeter.
4) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
5) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
6) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.
8)


ThreatCon 1 C: (Civil Disturbances/Unrest)
1) Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
2) Get everyone home immediately.
3) Arm those that are capable and establish a watch of the property perimeter.
4) Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
5) When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
6) Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
7) Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.