NHC Hurricane Maria

and they call the wind ... Maria

That didn't take long. It's now a tropical storm, but expected to become a Hurricane. And another storm (Lee) right behind.

It doesn't look like the British Virgin Islands, and the French Islands in the Caribbean, are going to get any breaks. It will be a very rough time for those folks.

It's far too early to guess how Florida will handle this, but the path for Maria seems similar to Irma as it will cross north of Puerto Rico. if I was living in the Florida Keys, I'd be thinking about getting my valuable stuff to a safe place on the mainland.

USVI is in the crosshairs again for this one too if this path verifies. My wife's cousin lives on St. John, and that place is pretty thoroughly destroyed. A second storm, even if "only" a Cat 3 when it hits, will not help matters at all.

_If_ Maria comes to Florida it will be interesting to see if there are evacuations out of state like there were for Irma. I think many of the people that did that are willing to take their chances for the next one, considering how miserable an experience the evacuation became.

It would seem that when there is massive destruction to the infrastructure and disruption of supply chains, there is no easy option, provided your shelter-in-place withstands the event...

How do you solve a problem named Maria?

Though God spared us, bugging in was nevertheless a scary experience. I don't want to do that again.

Jeanette Isabelle

Jeanette - no need to panic just yet. No two hurricanes ever follow the same path. We don't yet know what size Hurricane Maria will be, let alone where it will go.

Your experience "bugging in" did give you a real taste for how that goes. You have a few days to make plans, just in case you don't want to stay at home again. But no need to activate anything at this stage.

I think a lot of Floridians on the mainland will probably choose to shelter-in-place for the next hurricane. But a lot depends on how much water was in each neighborhood. OR ELSE - the folks who decide to leave will get out early. Which is good.

Maria is predicted to go right over Puerto Rico ... in the latest ground tracks. That could suck quite a lot of energy out of the storm. We'll see ...

The big question again ... the Florida Keys. We now know what a "Conch" is, and why they won't leave. But I think that Irma taught the Conch's the wrong lesson. Time will tell.

The Governor of Florida is probably just shaking his head ... right about now.

What would you change next time, Jeanette Isabelle? Would you bug-out or make changes to your Bug-in plan?

looking at that storm track - very bad news for the Virgin Islands, the French islands, and the coast of Puerto Rico. Maria is a little bit more to the south (compared to Irma), which puts the islands on the east (or north-east) side of the storm - exactly where the winds are the worst.

We will have to wait to see how big this hurricane grows. right now it looks like they are saying it will only be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane as it goes through the Caribbean.

Is there a link to the "European Model" regarding Maria. It would be interesting to see how they are calling Maria considering the damage to Saint Martin and the British Virgin Islands.

There's a good read at: Weather Underground on Hurricane Forecast Computer Models ...

well ... NO SURPRISE ... 6 pm Eastern on Sunday and Maria is already a genuine hurricane. They were saying - Maria will not but a hurricane until Monday morning. But here we go.

Have to say - Boy these storms gather force fast ... these days. Incredible.

If this thing stays on-track, the Virgin Islands and the south coast of Puerto Rico are really going to get whacked.

Given that Mom would bug in to batten down the hatches, I would bug in. I don't know what I would do differently.

Jeanette Isabelle

Maria looks to be taking a slight turn north. PR will take a big hit on this path, but Florida may not take a second hit. We'll see.

Jeanette - I agree with Russ.
It's possible that Florida will be spared a direct hit. But too early to tell. So you might be OK. Someone will get some rain, but maybe states north of Florida. Maria will be a major hurricane starting today - Monday.

Will probably be Cat 3 or Cat 4 by Wed night. But its strength is unknown after the pass over Puerto Rico.

Russ has succeeded in "converting me" to the WUNDERGROUND site. Their photos (satellite) and predicted tracks for Maria are excellent today.
There is a big difference between the European model and the GFS model. GFS has the storm swinging north into the ocean. But the European model says that it could swing closer to the (east) coast of Florida. At this stage there are a lot of unknowns - especially for the European model. The scatter in the possible predicted paths is enormous - for the 20-day forecast.

As far as Florida, South Carolina and Georgia are concerned - this is a "wait and see" event. But as far as the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the Antilles are concerned ... this new storm is a disaster. Shipments of plywood from Puerto Rico have already been cancelled. A lot of people on the islands don't even have wood to shutter their windows.

Maria was just upgraded to a Cat.5 hurricane. Watch out Puerto Rico...

A CAT5 storm now! Certainly this bears watching. I'm fortunate not to have to worry about such things in South Dakota; hopefully Maria will slip by populated areas.

Phaedrus - yes exactly.
Yesterday they said - maybe Maria will be a Cat 1 on Monday, maybe by Wed it will be Cat 3 / Cat 4. But already on Monday night it is Cat 5.

The folks in Florida - better not take the plywood off their windows yet.

"Maria was just upgraded to a Cat.5 hurricane. Watch out Puerto Rico... "

Very true. The whole island will be drenched by rain. But there are some places that are really going through ruin and destruction. Domenica and the US Virgin Islands - are going to get hit with the full fury of Hurricane Maria. Likewise ... the SE coast of Puerto Rico.

I have been watching the Weather Chanel. At current projections, Maria will pass us to the east.

My concern is not really about the hurricane. Instead, it's about my mental health during a hurricane.

As may know, I was in a psychiatric hospital in 2005. My health is degrading to pre-hospitalization status. Maybe what I need to face the storms and everything else is to go back so I will be ready.

Jeanette Isabelle

Jeanette - I think that you will be fine. Read Psalms, God is in control. Florida might get some rain, the real problem is for the Caribbean Islands.

OK - I will try this again. When I did this for the Keys, before Hurricane Irma, the webcam was swamped by viewers.

Here is a LIVE webcam from St. Croix in the Virgin Islands. You can see the weather deteriorating now. Hurricane Maria is predicted to pass within 10 miles of St. Croix, and on the south side. This is really bad news for the residents of this island.

If the webcam does not work, try coming back in one hour.

Best wishes and prayers for everyone on St. Croix, and in all the islands nearby.

WEBCAM ...

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/

Jeanette Isabelle: I agree with Pete. MARIA will be a walk in the park for you.

Figure 5 at Maria Headed for ... Puerto Rico, St. Croix shows the latest track estimates and they are well to the east of Florida. Should be no problem for Orlando.

Dr Masters (WUNDERGROUND) has been making the best calls on Maria. He did say more intensification would probably happen after the crossing at Domenica.

IN FACT - Maria is intensifying rapidly. More than anyone could possibly expect. It is very possible that the max wind speeds in this hurricane will exceed Hurricane Irma ... at the time of its greatest strength.

I sure hope that everybody goes to a safe place in St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

Jeanette - this storm is not coming near Orlando. You are OK!!

St Croix got hit by wind gusts above 100 mph. The extent of the damage is not known yet - but it must be very big.

Puerto Rico took the full brunt of the storm. Some cell towers have been torn down. The full extent of damage is not known yet.

Maria is expected to emerge from Puerto Rico as a Cat 2 hurricane (maybe Cat 3), having lost energy over the land. However, the future track is uncertain because the weather is being influenced by Jose - which is far to the north. Therefore, it is still too early to know how Maria will affect the USA. But if Maria does bring rain to the USA - NOT confirmed yet - most likely it will be to the states north of Florida.

If anyone sees news reports from the Virgin Is, or Puerto Rico, please post here.

WUNDERGROUND has an excellent discussion - thanks Dr. Masters.

My wife's cousin spoke with her ex-husband this morning on the island of St. John in the USVI. The satellite phone signal was lost pretty quickly, but he at least confirmed he is alive and well.

Some of these islands are looking at months of work to restore power and other basic utilities. Conditions there will be fairly primitive until then.

The storm damage in Puerto Rico is looking really bad. Not just the SE coast - pretty much everywhere. Still have not seen any pix or reports from St. Croix. It's possible that no-one can get in, or get out (the airport is probably down).

Please post if you see news reports.

Speaking of St. Croix ... Virginia Beach woman chartered plane to ...n on Caribbean

wow. there's a real dog lover!!
seems like it wouldn't be a bad idea to transport kids out of those disaster zones too - ahead of hurricanes.

As I said, my concern is not the hurricane. I just did not want to add a storm to the mix.

By the way, since I am not eating, I'm getting back to my normal weight.

Jeanette Isabelle