Sorry for not having been around over the past few weeks. I hate not getting my equipped fix lol. That being said something's been chewing at me for a while and building up into a sort of crescendo. I realized that at bare minimum, it begs the question and I figured I'd put it to you guys to see what you think.

The scenario: Cometary impact.

Yep, that's right. Comet strike on the world. I know, I know. You're thinking "He said plausible" ... well, it is

I've been reading a few books recently, more specifically one called uriel's machine. And while they make some debatable claims they do however make one hell of a case of MULTIPLE comet strikes on planet earth over the past 10-20,000 years. The after effects are pretty well documented both in geology and oral history which is bizarre and sobering. I highly recommend reading the book

Anyways, that being said we have good old comet Elenin on it's way for a near by pass (by that I mean a razor's width) to earth. .24 au on the light side though I've heard some estimates of it being as close as .0004au. For those who are unaware - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_unit

It's due in early october, btw.

Moreover the angle of intersection with the earth's orbit is what REALLY gives me the heebie jeebies. When I think "intersecting the earth's orbit" I think of two great big lines in space perfectly perpendicular to each other. Unfortunately that's not the case. Per nasa's JPL it's coming in a shallow angle.. which any layperson can see gives it a better shot at us.

So let's just say it's NOT going to happen as I'm not here to really debate that per se. I have my beliefs, you have yours and you're welcome to do your own research. But the question, point, and purpose of this thread is:

Scenario: Comet strike
Timeline: 6 months to prepare
Resources: Absolutely anything and everything you have, including your kitchen sink. I mean after all, it's survival

First off from what I know from the discovery channel you have about a 50/50 shot right off the bat based on hemisphere/land/ocean/water. So for the sake of argument let's say it's going to hit ocean. You will not be incinerated in nuclear fire. You might, however, get rolled by a 2-3 mile high tidal wave. Or die from nuclear winter effects. Etc.

Chew on it and reply

There is plenty of good evidence for cometary strikes in the past. However, Uriel's Machine is not a credible source and personally I think the claims presented in the book are so much baloney. If the data presented therein is the source of your concern, you can rest easy.

It is an interesting subject. I have been involved, very peripherally, in some of the field work behind a recent proposal of another meteor strike at 12,900 years ago. There is actual physical evidence to support this claim (unique impact compounds in well dated layers in several localities). Let's just say that even this event is rather controversial - it is definitely not currentlyaccepted by a majority of scientists working in the field.

Even earlier, we have Meteor Crater in Arizona (some 50,000 years old) and the Cretaceous extinction event, the undoing of the dinosaurs, 69 million years ago. This by no means exhausts the list of accepted or controversial events in the past.

If yet another extraterrestrial object comes calling? If there is any kind of warning, I would move or at least climb to higher ground (my residence is a mere 200 feet above MSL) so I would be in trouble in the event of a mile high tsunami. I am afraid my folding kayak would not be of much use to me.

If no warning, or I cannot move, well I have had a long and generally productive life, and nothing lasts forever.

I understand we get close fly bys rather frequently, and I believe there is some interest in tracking near earth objects and considering measures to avoid impacts. Someone more knowledgeable can fill in the gaps.

Just one other thing -if we have to run for our lives, be sure and take fire starting materials. Might be a good idea to pack along some shelter basics as well. You just never know..

If I'm older and can't snowboard, bike, etc., then a massive comet strike would be an awesome way to die, compared to others ways to die (e.g., painful hospital death). I'd live life to the absolute fullest until the comet strike, and I wouldn't worry my mind with preparing to survive the comet strike. My only survival preparation would be directed toward living until the comet strike.



That puts a different spin on things. Let me thing about that one...

If I know it's going to hit, I can probably figure out where. So Step One is to do that, and use it to inform Step Two. Step Two is to find a tectonically stable place away from the coast to put my shelter. Step Three is to build and stock the best underground shelter I can afford after selling everything I can and maxing out my (excellent) credit.

Realistically, if I know, a lot of people know, so this kind of plan is less likely to succeed. I might be better off banding together with others to build and stock the shelter.

Chaos, an underground shelter? Really? With Fimblewinter on the way?

And Garland,if I remember correctly, your .0004 AU is "only" about 60 THOUSAND kilometers. Considering that the Earth's diameter 12.5 thousand miles, that's like having someone with a rifle miss you by ten feet. Annoying, concerning, but not in and of itself lethal.

Read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Niven and Pournelle. Answers most of your questions, with some easy to understand science thrown in.

Better would be to build a planetary defense system, but I don't think my credit is THAT good. I'm entirely confident that I can't afford to relocate to Proxima Centauri.

My concerns include severe weather the likes of which the human race has never seen.

I have to admit, it's one of the things I throw my hands up to. It's happened before and will happen again but it's something that I feel pretty much powerless against so I try not to think about it beyond the residual after-glow of works of fiction. I've got my preps for the threats I think are realistic and survival, and am consistenly working on improving those. That's about the best I can do.

If the situation did arise I'm certain a number of factors would come into play and I'd have to make my decisions with those in mind. (i.e. local, national and international actions)

I imagine a lot of people wouldn't survive to see the comet. Once word got out there'd be worldwide panic, hoarding, looting, martial law, and severe rationing. If you didn't already have a few years of food, medications, and citical supplies stockpiled you might be SOL. How would you buy enough food if govenrments around the world were stockpiling every available resource? Life would definitely suck for the average person, myself included. I imagine living on an abundant coastline would be easier as you could fish and forage but who knows. Plus, everyone would probably be relocating inland so you might have the place all to yourself.

It's happened before and will undoubtedly happen again. I think preparation is preparation, no matter what you're prepping for. But there are some things no amount of prep can save you from.