I´m lost for words!

Posted by: Herman30

I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 11:37 AM

Italian Scientists Sentenced to 6 Years for Earthquake Statements.

Quote:
Six Italian scientists and a government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over statements they made prior to a 2009 earthquake that killed 309 in the town of L'Aquila.

A year-long trial came to a close today (Oct. 22) with the verdict, which alarmed earth scientists worldwide.

"I hope the Italians realize how backwards they are in this L'Aquila trial and its verdict," Erik Klemetti, an assistant professor of geosciences at Denison University in Ohio, wrote on Twitter, adding that the verdict was a "terrible precedent."

According to prosecutors, the scientists and official downplayed the risks of a large quake in L'Aquila, Italy, after a series of tremors shook the city in early 2009. On April 6, 2009, a magnitude-6.3 quake hit, killing 309 people. L'Aquila's medieval architecture led to numerous building collapses during the quake. [See Photos of L'Aquila Earthquake Destruction]

It took Judge Marco Billi just more than four hours to reach a verdict, according to the BBC. The scientists were found guilty of multiple manslaughter.

At the controversial March 31 meeting in L'Aquila, earth scientist Enzo Boschi, a defendant in the case, acknowledged the uncertainty, calling a large earthquake "unlikely," but saying that the possibility could not be excluded. In a post-meeting press conference, however, Department of Civil Protection official Bernardo De Bernardinis, also a defendant, told citizens there was "no danger."

At the beginning of the trial in September 2011, U.S. earthquake scientists conveyed alarm at the idea of subjecting earthquake risk assessment to the criminal justice system.

"Our ability to predict earthquake hazards is, frankly, lousy," Seth Stein, a professor of Earth sciences at Northwestern University in Illinois, told LiveScience then. "Criminalizing something would only make sense if we really knew how to do this and someone did it wrong."

Knowing whether small quakes are foreshocks for a larger temblor is impossible, according to seismologists. A 1988 study of other quake-prone Italian regions found, for example, that about half of large quakes were preceded by weaker foreshocks. But only 2 percent of small quake swarms heralded a larger rupture.
Posted by: M_a_x

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 03:08 PM

The article is very short on useful information. Any judgement based on this data would be highly speculative.
From the article it seems like the scientists did a wrong prediction and now go to jail for it.
What really counts is whether the scientists adequately explained the odds of the incident to happen to the government official. The scientists are the experts (even when their knowledge is poor) the official is most certainly not. According to Seth Stein it would boil down to: We have a 1:50 chance of a larger quake to happen. If it happens many people are going to die. Now it´s your choice whether you evacuate.
Would you bet the lives of people you are responsible for on not drawing the ace of spades from a shuffled poker deck? That has about the same odds.
Posted by: spuds

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 04:24 PM

Very bizarre law.
Posted by: GarlyDog

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 06:03 PM

Picked a bad day for the crystal ball to stop working...
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 08:40 PM

This is an utterly stupid verdict. It is typical of the general scientific illiteracy and "someone els must be to blame" menality that is rampant today.

There was a NY times article before the trial with a bit of background. It says in part:
Quote:
In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.

But there was a wild card in L’Aquila that complicated the situation. As the earthquake swarm continued over several months, a local man who is not a scientist issued several predictions of a large earthquake — specific as to date and location — based on measurements of radon, a radioactive gas that is released as rocks fracture.

The predictions, none of which proved accurate, increased public anxiety in the city — so much so that the Italian government convened a meeting of a national risk-forecasting commission, including the seismologists and the government official, in L’Aquila on March 30.

At the meeting, the seismologists noted that it was possible, though unlikely, that the seismic activity could be a sign that a larger quake was imminent. They also noted that there was always some risk in L’Aquila, which has a history of earthquakes. But in a news conference afterward, the message to the public became garbled, with the government official assuring that there was no danger.


So the seismologists are to blame?

For making any kind of warning about natural disasters (earthquake, hurricane, forest fire or whatever) you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. If you issue a warning and nothing happens, people accuse you of crying wolf. and you are ruining business. If you make a warning but things turn out worse than expected, then it's your fault that people weren't prepared.

What a crock!
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 08:46 PM

This story is up there with the Hartlepool Monkey

Quote:
In former times, when war and strife

The French invasion threaten’d life

An’ all was armed to the knife

The Fisherman hung the monkey O !

The Fishermen with courage high,

Siezed on the monkey for a French spy;

“Hang him !” says one; “he’s to die”

They did and they hung the monkey Oh!

They tried every means to make him speak

And tortured the monkey till loud he did speak;

Says yen “thats french” says another “its Greek”

For the fishermen had got druncky oh!

Hammer his ribs, the thunnerin thief

Pummel his pyet wi yor neef!

He’s landed here for nobbut grief

He’s aud Napoleon’s uncky O!

Thus to the Monkey all hands behaved

“Cut off his whiskers!” yen chap raved

Another bawled out “He’s never been shaved”,

So commenced to scrape the Monkey, O!

They put him on a gridiron hot,

The Monkey then quite lively got,

He rowl’d his eyes tiv a’ the lot,

For the Monkey agyen turned funky O!.

Then a Fisherman up te Monkey goes,

Saying “Hang him at yence, an’ end his woes,”

But the Monkey flew at him and bit off his nose,

An’ that raised the poor man’s Monkey O!

In former times, mid war an’ strife,

The French invasion threatened life,

An’ all was armed to the knife,

The Fishermen hung the Monkey O!

The Fishermen wi’ courage high,

Seized on the Monkey for a spy,

“Hang him” says yen, says another,”He’ll die!”

They did, and they hung the Monkey O!. They tortor’d the Monkey till loud he did
squeak

Says yen, “That’s French,” says another “it’s Greek”

For the Fishermen had got drunky, O!

“He’s all ower hair!” sum chap did cry,

E’en up te summic cute an’ sly

Wiv a cod’s head then they closed an eye,

Afore they hung the Monkey O!.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aQ2rZOlhCBg

Posted by: Russ

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/23/12 09:30 PM

It's not the scientists fault . . blame is all on the statisticians . . and maybe the French monkey. wink
Posted by: hikermor

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/24/12 12:51 AM

This is really terrible news and a highly flawed verdict - punishment in search of a crime.
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: I´m lost for words! - 10/24/12 04:14 AM

Alas, that doesn't seem out of character for the legal system in Italy.